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Government 2: Oversight

Introduction

Force

Between groups
Against criminals

Decision-making

Voting
Minority Protections
Officeholders
Laws
Administration and taxes

Oversight

The need to guard the guardians has been a slow concept to develop in human history. Rulers had God on their side, or were gods, and it’s only in the last few centuries that there’s been even a concept of checks and balances. But, as usual, the powerful find workarounds and we’re back to the point where “you can’t fight City Hall” is considered a cliché.

In a sustainable system, that is, in a fair one, that feeling couldn’t exist. Without effective oversight of the government, a sustainable system won’t happen.

Real oversight depends on the independence and intelligence of the overseers, with the first factor apparently much more important than the second. (The financial meltdown, the false evidence for the US to start a war in Iraq, the astonishing loss of consumer control over purchased digital products: these all depend(ed) on cozy relationships among the powers-that-be. Those powerful people are, if anything, smarter than average.) So the first requirement of oversight is that it has to be distributed, not concentrated among an elite. It should, furthermore, stay distributed and avoid creeping concentration from re-emerging. This is where current methods fall down. Elections happen too rarely and voters can be manipulated for the short periods necessary. Lawsuits take too much time and money to be more than a rearguard action. Our current feedback loops are far too long to work consistently.

Unfortunately, there are only a few pointers showing what will work. No current government has effective oversight that can demonstrate how it should be done. There are effective and sufficiently incorruptible governments, such as the ones at the top of Transparency International’s lists year after year, but the main factors keeping them honest are cultural rather than methodological. What are needed are rules that will work everywhere. I’ll outline the main points and then discuss them in more detail.

One big pointer we do have is that transparency prevents the worst behavior, or at least enables citizens to mobilize against it. Full scale looting of public money and dreadful decisions taken for self-serving ends require secrecy. Another pointer is that elections do cause politicians to sit up and take notice. Recall elections, especially ones that can happen at any time, should be even better at that. But finer-grained feedback is also needed: a system of expressing dissatisfaction that can allow input before anger has to build and before the only solution is to cart the whole mess away. An escalating system of complaints could be a solution. Last, in the case of plain old criminal wrongdoing, there would be criminal proceedings, as there are now.

An important point if there is effective oversight is the right of officials to contest it. If oversight actually works, we want to be sure that it works correctly, so it too needs its own checks and balances. Government is a tensegrity structure, not a pyramid.

Who does the overseeing is as important as how. Distributed — in other words, citizen — oversight may be the essential part, but the fact has to be faced that citizens have other things to do besides track officials. Citizens must have the final word, but it is unlikely they’ll do well in the day-to-day minutia of oversight. There also need to be professional auditors whose task is to keep tabs on all the data provided by transparency, to take appropriate actions as needed, and to alert the public to major developing problems that aren’t noticed enough. This is another area where professionals are needed for the boring or technical details and the general public is needed to ensure independence and functional feedback.

Moving on to a closer look at transparency, the first point is what it is not. It is not a data dump. It is not an exercise in hiding some data under a mountain of other data. It does not mean keeping every record for the sake of theater. It doesn’t mean stifling interactions by perching the Recording Angel on everyone’s shoulders.

Transparency means the optimum data for the purpose of promoting honesty in government. Information not relevant to that purpose is just noise that masks the signal. However, as always when an optimum is required, the difficulty is finding the right balance. If the right to know is defined too narrowly, there’s the risk of oversight failure. If it’s defined too broadly, then privacy may be invaded for nothing. Organizations such as Transparency International have considerable data on how to approach the optimal level. The more governments that had a commitment to providing clear and honest data, the more we’d learn about how to achieve the most useful transparency with the least intrusion and effort.

What we know so far is that financial data and records of contacts and meetings provide two of the clearest windows on what officials (also outside of government) are up to. Financial data in the hands of amateurs, however, can be hard to understand or boring or vulnerable to attitudes that have nothing to do with the matter at hand. For instance, accountants have the concept that tracking amounts smaller than what it costs to track them are not worth following. Amateurs, on the other hand, will notice a trail of gratuitous donuts but feel too bored to follow statements of current income as present value of net future cash flows, and the fact that the statement is Enron’s means nothing before the fall. It is important to ignore the easy distractions of small stuff and to notice the big stuff, especially when it’s so large it seems to be nothing but the background.

To be precise, there were plenty of auditors involved in the Enron fiasco who knew better. That wasn’t a simple matter of amateurs distracted by ignorance. However, the auditors received vast sums of money from the company, which simply underlines the need for true independence in oversight, including independence from membership in similar networks. Real transparency would have made the necessary information available to anyone, and would have prevented both the disaster and the pre-disaster profits, some of which flowed to the very people supposedly in oversight … which is why oversight wasn’t applied in time.

Records of meetings and contacts are another important source of data about what officials are doing, but that raises other problematic issues. People need to feel able to speak candidly. After all, the whole point is to promote honesty, not to generate ever newer layers of speaking in code. A soft focus is needed initially, followed by full disclosure at some point. Maybe that could be achieved by a combination of contemporary summaries of salient points and some years’ delay on the full record. The interval should be short enough to ensure that if it turns out the truth was shaded in the summaries, corrective action and eventual retribution will still be relevant. The interval would probably need to vary for different types of activity — very short for the Office of Elections, longer perhaps for sensitive diplomatic negotiations between countries.

Presentation of information is a very important aspect of transparency, although often overlooked. This may be due to the difficulty of getting any accountability at all from current governments, so we’re grateful for whatever we get, even data in indigestible lumps. Governments that actually served the people would present information in a way that allows easy comprehension of the overall picture. Data provided to the public need to be organized, easily searchable, and easy to use for rank amateurs as well as providing deeper layers with denser data for professionals. If these ideas were being applied in a society without many computers, public libraries and educational institutions would be repositories for copies of the materials.

A related point is that useful transparency has a great deal to do with plain old simplicity. The recordkeeping burden on officials should be made as simple and automatic as possible. Some of that simplicity should result directly from requiring only information relevant to doing the job honestly, rather than all information.

That brings me to another point. Information relevant to other purposes, such as satisfying curiosity, has nothing to do with transparency. Or, to put it another way, the public’s right to know has limits. An official’s sex life, for instance, unless it affects his or her job, is not something that needs to be detailed for the sake of transparency, no matter how much fun it is. Officials, like everyone else, do have a right to privacy on any matter that is not public business.

Transparency should make oversight possible for any citizen, but it shouldn’t be their sole responsibility to use it. To repeat one more time, that runs the risk of people being insufficiently irritated to keep their government honest. There also needs to be a professional audit arm of the government, one which can examine any department and has the expertise to detect wrongdoing. The General Accounting Office fulfills some of that function in the US now, but it serves Congress primarily. In the system I’m thinking about, it would serve the citizenry with publication of its reviews, and it would have the power to initiate recalls or criminal proceedings, as needed. (More on enforcement in a moment.)

A professional audit agency doesn’t provide enough oversight, by itself, because of people’s tendency to grow too comfortable with colleagues. Citizens’ ability to take action would counteract the professionals’ desire to avoid friction and ignore problems in spite of their own expertise. But citizen oversight, by itself, is also insufficient. Its main function is as a backstop in case the professionals aren’t doing their jobs. The day to day aspects, the “boring” aspects of oversight need to be in the hands of people paid to pay attention.

Feedback is the next big component of oversight, together with transparency, legal sanctions, and the right to appeal against the other three. The sternest form of feedback is recall elections, but in the interests of preventing problems while they are still small, a system that aims for stability should have many and very easy ways to provide feedback.

The easiest way to give feedback is to complain. That route should be developed into an effective instrument regarding any aspect of government, whether it’s specific people, paperwork, or practices. Complaints could address any annoyance, from a form asking for redundant information to the head of the global Department of Transportation ignoring a lack of coordination among intercontinental flights. Anyone who worked for a tax-funded salary, from janitors to judges, could be the subject of a complaint.

It’s simple enough to set up a complaints box, whether physical or electronic, but effectiveness depends on three more factors. The first two are responsibility without repercussions. People have to be able to complain without fear of retribution. On the other hand, complaints have to be genuine in all senses of the word. They have to come from a specific individual, refer to a specific situation, and be the only reference by that person to that problem. Anonymity is a good way to satisfy the first requirement. Responsibility is necessary to satisfy the second. Somehow, those two conflicting factors must be balanced at an optimum that allows the most genuine complaints to get through. Possibly a two-tiered system could offer a solution: one tier anonymous with some safeguards against frivolous action, and one not anonymous (but confidential, of course), and maybe more heavily weighted.

The third factor is that the complaints must actually be acted upon. That means sufficient staffing and funding at the audit office to process them. It’s to be expected that the thankless jobs of officials will generate some background level of complaints. Complaints below that level, which can be estimated from studies of client satisfaction across comparable institutions, should be noted by the official in question. If there was a pattern to the complaints, those responsible should provide explanations or change policy or behavior as indicated. However, that level of complaints wouldn’t lead to action by others, such as officials in the audit agency.

In setting that baseline level, it’s best to err on the low side, since expressed complaints are likely indicative of a larger number of people who were bothered but said nothing. The level also should not be the same for all grades. People are likelier to complain about low level workers than managers whom they don’t see.

Once complaints rise above what might be called the standard background, action should be automatically triggered. Initially, the audit office (or the auditors of the audit office, when needed) could send a warning, then investigate, then start a recall if the position is subject to unelection or dismiss the worker if not.

If the volume of complaints was enormous, then there’s a systemic failure somewhere. Therefore, as a last resort, some very high number of genuine complaints should automatically trigger dismissal, unelection, or repeal of a procedure. Transparency means that the volume of complaints and their subject is known to everyone, so when that point was reached would not be a secret.

That may seem draconian and ripe for abuse, but at this point we’re so far from any system of real accountability for officials that it’s hard to predict how people would react. Given that currently the abuse is on the other side, worrying about false accusations against officials smacks of our usual desire to coddle the mighty. In a system that worked, complaints would never reach the point of triggering automatic action. In a system that worked perfectly, the selection process for officials would be so good that the complaints office would have nothing to do.

I’ve already touched on unelections, but I’ll repeat briefly. The recall process can be initiated either by some form of populist action, such as a petition, or by the government’s audit arm. After a successful recall, an official should be ineligible for public service for some period of time long enough to demonstrate that they’ve learned from their mistakes. They’d be starting at the lowest rung, since the assumption has to be that they need to prove themselves again.

There can be worse problems in officialdom than unsatisfactoriness. Corruption or gross mismanagement should have consequences. A simple resignation is not enough any more than it is for a common criminal. Even worse, it is actually less adequate because crimes committed by representatives of the State carry a bigger burden for all of society because the State sets the tone. So there must be real and frightening penalties for any kind of malfeasance in office, starting with financial penalties that amount to the official’s net worth, except when less is sufficient to fully cover the damage done. The penalties would go up from there to various levels of community service. In very bad cases, the service could last a lifetime. Nor should there be any statute of limitations on negligence or problems generated by officials. They are hired and paid the big money to pay attention. If they don’t, they must not escape the consequences merely because people are so used to letting government officials get away with everything.

So far, my focus has been on ways of controlling officials, and that is the larger side of the problem. But, that said, officials do need ways of contesting overactive oversight, downright harassment, or unjustified recalls or prosecutions. The point of draconian oversight — draconian from our perspective that teflon officials are normal — is to have public servants who live up to their name. They must serve the public.

On the other hand, they’re an odd sort of servant because a significant part of their job is doing things for the public good which the public usually doesn’t like very much at the time. (If that weren’t true, there’d be no need for officials to do them. They’d get done without help.) So, there are two reasons why officials must be protected from capricious oversight. One is that servants have rights. Two is that they have to be able to take necessary unpopular steps without fear of reprisals. The public, after all, is as capable of abusing power as the individuals it’s composed of.

Complaints are the earliest point where an official could disagree with the public’s assessment. If the complaints are caused by a necessary but unpopular policy, the official needs to make clear why it’s necessary, and why something easier won’t do. Complaints happen over time, so if they’re a rising tide, that’s not something that can come as a surprise to the responsible party. The official’s justifications would become part of the record. When complaints reach a high enough level to be grounds for unelection or dismissal, and if the official is convinced that a decisive proportion of the complaints is unwarranted, they could ask for independent review. (An example of possible specifics is given below right.)

The official and the complainant(s) could agree on one or more audit experts, depending on complexity, to review the case. If that didn’t lead to a resolution, the next step would be the legal process, with appeals if needed. Only decisions that went against an official should count as bad marks on their record. Simply feeling the need to defend oneself is not.

However, after repeated cases that go against either an official or a complainant, those individuals should no longer have standing to bring future cases of that type. The bar should be set less restrictively for citizens than for officials. For instance, a citizen who starts recalls that are found frivolous seven times in a row, or an official who contests audits, high complaint levels, or recalls that are found justified three times in a row, would lose the right to bring that type of suit.

The audit arm of the government is another source of oversight that an official could disagree with. The ability to respond to its charges would be built into the system. If the responses passed muster, the case would be closed. If not, there could be appeals to a review board, and eventually the legal system. As in the example box, I’d see this as a process with limits.

Recalls are the most far-reaching form of oversight, and the ability to contest them the most dangerous to the health of the system. Contesting a recall should be a last resort and something that’s applied only in exceptional cases. Normally, if an official felt a recall was unjustified, they should make that case during the unelection and leave the decision to voters. However, for the exceptional case, officials could contest a recall if they had a clear, fact-based justification for why it had no valid basis. It would then go to a review board or legal panel composed of people with the necessary specialized expertise, chosen by the opposing sides as discussed earlier.

The biggest difference to an ordinary pool of experts is that potential conflicts of interest should be much more closely scrutinized. Neither should more nebulous loyalties be forgotten. The tendency to excuse the behavior of colleagues is very strong and it’s one of the biggest problems with oversight of government by government. As with any process involving a balance of rights, ensuring the independence of the arbiters is essential.

To provide an additional dose of independence, a second review track could be composed of a more diffuse pool of people with less but still adequate expertise, along the same lines as selectors who determine the eligibility of candidates for office. A matter as serious as contesting a recall should use both tracks at once, and be resolved in favor of the official only if both agreed.

As I’ve done before, I’ve provided some specific ideas about implementation not necessarily because those are good ways to do it, but mainly to illustrate my meaning. Whatever method is applied, the goal is to ensure the right of public servants to defend themselves against injustice, just like anyone else, and to prevent that from becoming an injustice itself.

Because of the potentially far-reaching consequences of contesting recalls, overuse absolutely must be prevented. If it was the considered opinion of most reviewers involved that an official who lost a bid to prevent a recall did not have grounds to contest in the first place, then that attempt should be considered frivolous. One such mistake seems like an ample allowance. Another frivolous attempt should be grounds for dismissal.

A structural weakness of oversight by the public is that officials have training, expertise, and familiarity with the system. That gives them the advantage in a contest with a diffuse group of citizens. An official’s ingroup advantage may be smaller against an arm of the government tasked with oversight, but that’s not the issue. The important point is that citizen action is the oversight of last resort so it sets the boundary conditions which must not fail. Since officials have the upper hand in the last-resort situation, it is right to err on the side of protecting oversight against the official’s ability to contest it. Officials must have that option, but it can’t be allowed to develop into something that stifles oversight. It’s another balance between conflicting rights. It may be the most critical balance to the sustainability of a fair system, since that can’t survive without honest and effective government.

Regulation

The government’s regulatory functions flow directly from its monopoly on force. What those functions should be depend on the government’s purpose which, in the case being discussed here, is to ensure fairness. People will always strive to gain advantage, and the regulatory aspects of government must channel that into fair competition and away from immunity to the rules that apply to others.

In an ideal world, the regulatory function would scarcely be felt. The rules would be so well tuned that their effects would be self-regulating, just as a heater thermostat is a set-it-and-forget-it device. More complex systems than furnaces aren’t likely to achieve this ideal any time soon, but I mention it to show what I see as the goal of regulation. Like the rest of government, when it’s working properly, one would hardly know it was there.

However, it is regulation that can achieve this zen-like state, not deregulation. This is true even at the simplest levels. A furnace with no thermostat cannot provide a comfortable temperature. In more complex human systems, deregulation is advocated by those powerful enough to take advantage of weaker actors. (Or those who’d like to think they’re that powerful.) It can be an even bigger tool for exploitation than regulation itself when badly applied. The vital point is that results expose motives regardless of rationalizations. If regulation, or deregulation, promotes concentrations of power or takes control away from individuals, then it’s being used as a tool for special interests and not in the service of a level playing field.

Current discussions of regulations tend to center on environmental or protectionist issues, but that’s because those are rather new, at least as global phenomena. In other respects, regulations are so familiar and obviously essential that most people don’t think of them as regulations at all. Remembering some of them points up how useful this function of government is. Weights and measures have been regulated by governments for thousands of years, and that has always been critical for commerce. Coins and money are a special instance of uniform measures — of value in this case — and even more obviously essential to commerce. The validity of any measure would be lost if it could be diddled to favor an interested party. Impartiality is essential for the wealth-producing effects to operate. That is so clear to everyone at this point that cheating on weights and measures is considered pathetic as well as criminal. And yet, the equally great value of fairness-preserving regulation in other fields generally needs to be explained.

Focusing now on a particular class of situations that always require regulation, concentrations of economic power can develop in a wide variety of situations, and they always need regulatory checks and balances. I’ll call them monopolies for short, even when they aren’t literally 100% in control.

Logically, monopolies shouldn’t exist because there ought to be a natural counterweight. They’re famous for introducing pricing and management inefficiencies that ought to leave plenty of room for competitors. But, people being what they are, market power is used to choke off any competition which could reduce it. The natural counterweight can’t operate, and only forces outside the system, such as government regulations, can halt that process.

Some monopolies are well understood by now. The classical ones involve massive costs for plants or equipment and very small costs to serve additional customers. Railroads are one example. The initial costs are high enough to prevent new startups from providing competition. Equally classic are natural monopolies where one supplier can do a better job than multiple competing ones. Utilities such as water and power are the usual examples. There’d be no money saved if householders had water mains from three separate companies who competed to supply cheap water. The duplicated infrastructure costs would swamp any theoretical savings.

So far, so good. The need for regulated utilities is well understood. Regulated transport is a bit iffier. The need for a State to handle the roads is accepted, even among the free market religionists in the US, but the need for state regulation and coordination of transport in general is less widely recognized. There can be much puzzlement about why the crazy uncoordinated patchwork of private railroads takes a week to move things from Coast A to Coast B. But, on the whole, the need to enforce limits on pricing power, the need for standards and for coordination is known, if not always well implemented.

The same need for limits on pricing, standards, and coordination holds with all other monopolies, too, but this is rarely seen, especially in newer technologies as I’ll discuss in a moment. A concentration of power, including market power, which tilts the playing field away from level is not acceptable in a fair society. Whenever that happens, a critical function of government is to rebalance the situation.

One point I’ve tried to make repeatedly is that fairness is not only a nice principle. Its practical effects are to provide stability and wealth. That is no less true in the case of preventing unbalanced market power. Following the inevitable pattern, the imbalances caused by concentrations of power result in chaotic consequences during the inevitable readjustment, and the only beneficiaries are a few people with some short term gains in the beginning. Having enough market power to change the playing field — which is the definition of monopoly that I’m using — is not only unfair and not only expensive. It’s also unstable, with all the social disruption that implies. Recognition of that fact leads to establishment of antitrust laws, but in our current systems there aren’t enough safeguards against the tendency to coddle power, market or otherwise, so the laws are largely ineffective.

The development of excessive market power is another good example (besides environmental issues) of how the role of knowledgeable officials can be foresight and prevention. For instance, it should be obvious that money is not the only startup cost that can form a barrier to entry. An information industry is a recent phenomenon that started with the printing press and has begun exponential growth after the computer. The main “capital cost” is not equipment but the willingness of people to learn new habits.

Imagine, for instance, that Gutenberg had a lock on printing from left to right. All later presses would have had to convince people to read right to left just so they could get the same book but not printed by Gutenberg. Good luck with that. Similarly with the qwerty keyboard. People learned to use it, it turned out to be a bad layout from the standpoint of fingers, and we’re still using it over a hundred years later. Only one cohort of people would have to take the time to learn a new layout, and that just doesn’t happen. If there had been a modern DMCA-style copyright on that layout, there’d still be nobody making keyboards but Remington.

Given the history, it should be obvious that any company which has the advantage of being over the learning curve, which people simply won’t repeat without huge inducements, that company has a natural monopoly as solid as anyone who owns the one gold mine in the nation. It’s a natural monopoly, and any monopoly needs regulation. If it works best as a monopoly, then it has to become a regulated utility. If it’s important enough, it may need to be government run to ensure adequate transparency and responsiveness to the users. If it doesn’t need to be a monopoly, then it’s up to regulation to ensure that the learning curve is not a barrier to entry.

You see where this is headed. A bureaucracy that was doing its job would make sure that no single company could control, for instance, a software interface. Don’t get me wrong. Somebody who invents a quantum improvement in usability should get the benefit of that invention just as with any other. But it cannot become a platform for gouging. Compulsory licensing at a controlled price would be the obvious solution.

Another new knowledge technology that’s rapidly getting out of hand is search. The more information there is, the higher the value of being able to find any one needed bit. The fact that search is a natural monopoly seems to have escaped too many people. At the providing end, all the information needs to be available to the indexer. Any secondary indexer with access to less of the total pool is a non-starter. Its results cannot be as complete, so more people will use the primary one, which means the gulf between primary and secondary gets wider, not narrower, with time. Furthermore, having multiple indexers makes as much sense as having multiple water mains. It’s a duplication of effort that adds no value at the end. On the user’s side, it’s also a natural monopoly because, again, users don’t change their habits if they can help it. (That’s why there are such heated battles among businesses over getting their icons on computer desktops. If it’s what people are used to and it’s right in front of them, your monopoly is safe.) Instead of pretending there is no monopoly because people have the physical option to make an initially more effortful choice — something we’ve shown repeatedly we won’t do — the sustainable solution comes from facing facts. More than one indexer is wasteful, and people won’t use more than one. It’s a natural monopoly.

There are further considerations specifically related to search. Any inequality in access to knowledge leads to an imbalance in a wide array of benefits and disadvantages. Further, an indexer is the gateway to all stored knowledge and therefore potentially exercises control over what people can learn. I, for instance, wanted to learn how to remove intercalated video ads from clips on Google’s subsidiary, Youtube. But a Google search on the topic brought up nothing useful in the first three screens’ worth of results. That despite the fact that there’s a Greasemonkey script to do the job, and other scripts of equivalent popularity do show up. Whether or not an adblocker is disappeared down a memory hole may not be important. But the capability to make knowledge disappear is vastly important. It is so important that it cannot be left to an entity that is answerable to no one. Anything like that has to be under government regulation that enforces full transparency and equality of access.

(None of that even touches on the privacy concerns related to search tools, which, in private hands and without thorough legal safeguards, is another locus of power that can be abused.)

There are two points to this digression into the monopolies of the information age. One is that they should and can be prevented. They have the same anti-competitive, anti-innovative, expensive, and ultimately destabilizing effect of all monopolies. And a good regulator would be breaking them up or controlling them for the public good before they grew so powerful that nothing short of social destruction would ever dislodge them. My second point is that monopolies may rest on other things besides capital or control of natural resources. All imbalances of market power, whether they’re due to scarce resources, scarce time, ingrained habits, or any other cause need to be recognized for what they are and regulated appropriately.

Regulations as the term is commonly used — environmental, economic, financial, health, and safety — are generally viewed as the government guaranteeing the safety of citizens to the extent possible. But that leads straight into a tangle of competing interests. How safe is safe? Who should be safe? Just citizens? Also foreigners who get as much or more of the downstream consequences? How high a price are people willing to pay for how much safety? Thus, for instance, there’s no sense that low-priced goods from countries with lax labor or environmental laws need tariffs to bring them in line with what they would cost if manufactured sustainably. That’s seen as an economic not a safety issue, and there’s little in economics as currently construed that says a country’s internal laws are anyone else’s business. Egregious cases of slavery or child labor are frowned on, but treated as ethical issues. Since immediate physical harm to consumers is not seen as part of the package, regulation takes a back seat to other concerns . . . until it turns out that the pollution or CO2 or contaminants do cause a clear and present danger, and then people are angry that the situation was allowed to get so far out of hand.

Approaching regulations as safety issues starts at the wrong end. Sometimes safety can be defined by science, but often there are enough gray areas that depend on viewpoint to make regulations seem a matter of competing interests. Safety can only be an accidental outcome of that competition unless the people at the likely receiving end of the harm have the most social power.

However, when the goal is fairness, a consistent regulatory framework is much easier to achieve. The greatest good of the greatest number, the least significant overall loss of rights, and the least harm to the greatest number is not that hard to determine in any specific instance. In a transparent system with recall elections, officials who made their decisions on a narrower basis would find themselves out of a job. And safety is a direct result, not an accidental byproduct, of seeking the least harm to the greatest number.

Consider an example. The cotton farmers of Burkina Faso cannot afford mechanization, so their crop cannot compete with US cotton. Is that a safety issue? Of course not. Cotton is their single most important export crop. If the farmers switch to opium, is that a safety issue? Sort of. If the local economy collapses, and the country becomes a haven for terrorists, that’s easy to see as a safety issue. A much worse threat, however, would be the uncontrolled spread of disease. Collapse is not just some academic talking point. The country is near the bottom of wealth lists, and who knows which crisis will be the proverbial last straw. So, once again, is bankrupting their main agricultural export a safety issue? Not right now. So nothing is done.

Is it, however, a fairness issue? Well, obviously. People shouldn’t be deprived of a livelihood because they are too poor to buy machines. There are simple things the US could do. Provide regulation so that US cotton was not causing pollution and mining land and water. The remaining difference in price could be mitigated with price supports to Burkinabe cotton. The only loss is to short term profits of US cotton farmers, and where that is a livelihood issue for smallholders assistance could be provided during the readjustment.

There may be better ways of improving justice in the situation, but my point is that even an amateur like me can see some solutions. The consequences of being fair actually benefit the US at least as much as Burkina Faso. (Soaking land in herbicide is not a Good Thing for anyone.) And twenty or thirty years down the road, people both in the US and in Burkina Faso will be safer. The things they’ll be safer from may be different — pollution in one case, social disruption in the other — but that doesn’t change the fact that safety oriented regulation has no grounds for action, but fairness oriented regulation can prevent problems.

The financial meltdown is another example, one that shows the need to maintain the motivation for enforcement as well as good regulations. In the US and in many other countries, the regulations to preserve the finances of the many rather than the narrow profit potential of the few were in place. The basic idea was to ensure some measure of financial fairness. In hindsight, the element missing was any desire to enforce those regulations. (E.g. see Krugman’s blog and links therein.)

Enforcement is necessarily a task performed by officials, who are hired precisely to know enough to take the actions that make hindsight unnecessary. Enabling catastrophe by not doing their jobs is a dereliction of duty, something that has consequences in a system that emphasizes feedback and accountability. For enabling a predictable collapse, the personal liability for dereliction of duty would take effect. Thus, fairness can both indicate useful courses of action (in this case preventing the shadow banking system and its profits . . . and subsequent losses) as well as provide the motivation to actually stay on course. People are quick to understand something when their living depends on it. (With apologies to Upton Sinclair.)

Globalization is yet another example, one that exposes the complications double standards create. It would also have to apply equally to all people. Labor would have to be as free to move to better conditions as capital. (See this post for a longer discussion.) Given equal application of the laws, globalization couldn’t be used as a way of avoiding regulations. Tariffs would have to factor in the cost of sustainable production, and then be spent in a way that mitigated the lack of sustainability or fairness causing There’d be less reward for bad behavior and hence fewer expensive consequences, whether that’s contaminants causing disease or social dislocation caused by low wages and lost work. Those things are only free to the companies causing the problem.

Economically, when a government’s function is preventing the development of double standards, then it’s also the government’s function to be far more vigilant about preventing concentrations of market power than any country is now. Automatic rules need to kick in when a company has more than a third of the market share, or some proportion that is low enough so that prevention of price-setting power is really an option. That would prevent innovation from being stifled by big players anxious to preserve their position. It would keep prices related to production rather than to whatever the market will bear, and make things cheaper for everyone.

The examples could be multiplied, but the principle stays the same. Regulation for the sake of fairness will act to reduce the short term profit of the few for the sake of the long term good of the many. That will naturally feel like an undue burden to anyone who spots an opening for some quick money, but their resentment is on a par with a robber’s hampered by the police. It’s an extreme example, but it points up the essence of the situation. Robbery generally has a much higher short term profit margin than working for a wage, but the social costs paid by everyone in a system of free-for-all robbery would be incalculable. Plus there’s the fact that sooner rather than later, general poverty caused by endemic robbery would reduce the profit margins to near nothing. A present burden preventing profit will always seem much heavier than a future one of social disaster, but that doesn’t mean it really is.

I’d like to reiterate that in a system which works for all instead of for a few, prevention of problems is an essential function. The point of fair regulation, as of fairness generally, is that avoiding problems is less traumatic than recovering from them. Despite the desirable outcome, though, prevention takes effort ahead of time while there’s still the option to be lazy, so it only happens when there’s pressure on the relevant officials. That means there have to be penalties if they don’t take necessary steps. It’s unreasonable to punish a lack of clairvoyance, and yet it’s necessary to punish officials who let a bad situation get worse because they are lazy or protecting their popularity.

So the final element of the regulatory structure must be guidelines about how much scholarly consensus on a likely outcome equals predictability. Then a lack of action in the face of that consensus needs to be on the books as a crime, punishable by loss of assets and even jail time, depending on the magnitude of the lapse. Nor should there be any statute of limitations on the crime, because there is none on its effects. The penalties need to be heavy enough to scare officials straight, but not so heavy they’re afraid to do their jobs. Finding the right balance is another area where study is needed to find optimal answers. But regulation is a vital function of government, so it is equally vital to make sure that it’s carried out effectively. Dereliction of duty is no less a crime of State than abuse of power.

Public Works

This is one of the few areas where the highest expression of the art of government is more than invisibility.  Some of the greatest achievements of humankind come from the type of concerted action only governments can coordinate.  The great pyramids of Egypt, medieval European cathedrals, and space flight were all enterprises so huge and so profitless, at least in the beginning, that they couldn’t have been carried out by any smaller entity.   

People could — and have — questioned whether those projects were the best use of resources, or whether some of them were worth the awful price in suffering. The answer to the latter is, obviously, no. Where citizens have a voice, they’re not likely to agree to poverty for the sake of a big idea, so that problem won’t (?) arise. But that does leave the other questions: What is worth doing? And who decides?

There’s an irreducible minimum of things worth doing, without which a government is generally understood to be useless. The common example is defense, but on a daily level other functions essential to survival are more important. A police force and court system to resolve disputes is one such function. Commerce requires a safe and usable transportation network and reliable monetary system. In the system described here, running the selection and recall processes would be essential functions. And in a egalitarian system, both basic medical care and basic education have to be rights. It is fundamentally unfair to put a price on life and health, and equally unfair to use poverty to deprive people of the education needed to make a living.

The definition of “basic” medical care depends on the wealth of the country. (Or the planet, in a unified world.) In the current rich countries, such as the G20, it simply means medical care. Everything except beauty treatments. And even those enter a gray area when deviations from normal are severe enough to cause significant social problems. On the other hand, in a country where the majority is living on a dollar a day and tax receipts are minimal, basic medical care may not be able to cover much except programs that cost a tiny fraction of the money they eventually save. That’s things like vaccinations, maternal and neonatal care, simple emergency care, pain relief, and prevention programs like providing mosquito netting, clean water, and vitamin A.

The definition of basic education also depends on the social context. In a pre-technological agrarian society it might be no more than six grades of school. In an industrial society, it has to include university for those who have the desire and the capacity to make use of it. The principle is that the level of education provided has to equal the level required to be eligible for good jobs, not just bottom tier jobs, in that society.

I’ve gone rather quickly from the irreducible minimum to a level of service that some in the US would consider absurdly high. Who decides what’s appropriate? I see that question as having an objective answer. We are, after all, talking about things that cost money. How much they cost and how much a government receives in taxes are pretty well-known quantities. From that it’s possible to deduce which level of taxes calls for which level of service.

For example, as I’ve pointed out, there are numerous governments who have total tax receipts of about a third of GDP and provide all the basic services plus full medical, educational, retirement, and cultural benefits, as well as providing funds for research. Hence, if a country approaches 33% in total tax receipts, it should be providing that level of service. If it isn’t, the citizenry is being cheated somewhere.

(Yes, this means the US is not doing at all well, with its 27% total taxes and lack of universal medical care, public higher education, anti-monopoly enforcement, and so on. It does, of course, provide a huge military that is a primary method of redistributing federal tax dollars to congressional districts and social programs such as adult education. Given the gap between US services and those of other rich countries, the US method is wasting money somewhere . . . .)

On the other hand a poor country, which can’t fairly have much of a tax rate, might have only 5% of an already low GDP to work with. Services then could be limited to the minimums discussed earlier. Even poverty-stricken governments can provide roads, police, fire protection, commercial regulation that promotes commerce, basic medicine and education. (It should go without saying, but may not, that a poor country may not have the resources to deal with disasters, and may need outside help in those cases.) The only thing that prevents some of the world’s countries from providing the basics now are corruption, incompetence, and/or the insistence of elites on burning up all available money in wars. None of those are essential or unavoidable. Fairness doesn’t cost a lot of money, but it’s opposite definitely does.

At any level of wealth, the receipts from fair levels of taxes will dictate given levels of service. Citizens who expect more without paying for it are being unfair, and governments who provide less than their tax receipts dictate must lower those taxes to match.

There is now no widespread concept that a government is obligated to provide a given level of service for a given amount of money. Even less is there a concept that taking too much money or providing too little service for the amount taken is a type of crime of State. The government’s monopoly on force in a might-makes-right world means that there aren’t even theoretical limits on stealing by the State. However, when it’s the other way around and right makes might, then those limits flow necessarily from what is considered a fair tax level.

So far, I’ve been discussing taxes and what they buy on a per-country basis which feels artificial in a modern world where money and information flow without borders, and where we all breathe the same air. A view that considers all people equal necessarily should take a global view of what’s affordable. I haven’t discussed it that way because it seems easier to envision in the familiar categories of nations as we have them now, but there’s nothing in the principles of fair taxation and corresponding services that wouldn’t scale up to a global level.

Finally, there’s the most interesting question. In a country — or a world like ours — which is doing much better than scraping by, what awe-inspiring projects should the government undertake? How much money should be devoted to that? Who decides what’s interesting? Who decides what to spend?

Personally, I’m of the opinion that dreams are essential, and so is following them to the extent possible. I subscribe to Muslihuddin Sadi’s creed:

If of mortal goods you are bereft,
and from your slender store two loaves
alone to you are left,
sell one, and from the dole,
buy hyacinths to feed the soul.

Or, as another wise man once said, the poor you shall always have with you. Spend some money on the extraordinary.

So I would answer the question of whether to spend on big projects with a resounding “yes.” But I’m not sure whether that’s really necessary for everyone’s soul or just for mine. I’m not sure whether it’s a matter of what people need, and hence whether it should be baked into all State budgets, or whether it’s a matter of opinion that should be decided by vote. If different countries followed different paths in this regard, time would tell how critical a role this really plays.

It seems to me inescapable that countries which fund interesting projects would wind up being more innovative and interesting places. Stingier countries would then either benefit from that innovation without paying for it, which wouldn’t be fair, or become boring or backward places where fewer and fewer people wanted to live. Imbalances with unfortunate social consequences would then have to be rectified.

As for the ancillary questions of what to spend it on, and how much to spend, those are matters of opinion. Despite that, it’s not clear to me that the best way to decide them is by vote. People never would have voted to fund a space program, yet fifty years later they’ll pay any price for cellphones and they take accurate weather forecasting for granted. I and probably most people have no use for opera, and yet to others it’s one of the highest art forms.

Further, another problem is that budget instability leads to waste. Nobody would vote for waste, but if voter anger jerks budgets around, that’s exactly what will happen. A good example of just how much that can cost is the tripling, quadrupling, and more of space program costs after the US Congress is done changing them every year. Voters, on the whole, are not good at the long range planning and broad perspective that large social projects require. Possibly, after a portion of the State budget has been assigned to creative work, the only way to choose projects is similar to the current one: pools of people familiar with the field try to identify the most promising proposals. Somehow, decisions on innovation and creativity have to be informed by innovative and creative visionaries without simultaneously allowing corrupt fools to rush in.

Summary

In conclusion a fair government, like any other, has a monopoly on force, but that is not the source of its strength. The equality of all its citizens, the explicit avoidance of double standards in any sphere, the renunciation of force except to prevent abuse by force, short and direct feedback loops to keep all participants honest, and all of these things supported in a framework of laws — those are the source of its strength. The strength comes from respecting rights, and is destroyed in the moment rights get less respect than might. The biggest obstacle to reaching a true rule of law is that intuition has to be trained to understand that strength is not muscle.

 

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Government 1: War and Politics

Introduction

There’s irony to the fact that in a work on government, the topic itself waits to appear till somewhere in the middle. But government is a dependent variable without any chance of being functional, to say nothing of fair, if the physical and biological preconditions aren’t met. Those preconditions can be satisfied with less effort when people are savvy enough to understand where they fit in the scheme of things, but they can’t be ignored.

It’s customary, or it is now at any rate, to think of government in terms of its three branches, executive, legislative and judicial. But those are really branchlets all in one part of the tree and don’t include important aspects of the whole thing. They are all concerned with the machinery, with how to get things done, and they don’t address the why, what, or who of government.

At its root, the function of government is to coordinate essential common action for the common good. When resources are at a minimum, the function is limited to defense, which is one type of common action. In richer situations, other functions are taken on, generally at the whim of the rulers and without a coherent framework for what actually serves the common good. The priorities are less haphazard in democracies, but still don’t necessarily serve the common good. Wars of aggression come to mind as an example.

The defining characteristic of a government is said to be a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. (Parents are allowed to use force on children in all societies so far — an exception I consider wrong as I discussed in chapter four — but that’s a side issue in the context of this discussion.) That force is used not only against outside threats, but also internal ones, such as criminals. An essential function of government is to protect its citizens from each other. It’s a short step from that to regulatory functions generally, to all the ways in which a government can serve to maintain the people’s rights. Economic, environmental, and safety regulations are all included here. Preventing bad actions is one type function carried out by government for the common good.

The positive functions of government are as important: the achievement of desirable goals, not merely the prevention of disaster. Some of those coordinated actions for the common good are now understood to be just as obvious a function of government as defense. Essential infrastructure is in this category, although people don’t always agree on what is essential. Ensuring basic standards of living, basic levels of health, and security in old age are also coming to be understood as something government is uniquely qualified to do. And then there are the things which fire the imagination and are a quest and an adventure rather than a necessity. These are big or not obviously profitable projects beyond the scope of smaller entities, projects such as support for basic research, for space programs, or for the arts.

Given that government has a great deal to do, it may be worth pointing out which functions it does not have. Its purpose is not to bring happiness or wealth to its citizens, only to bring the preconditions for those desirable things. And it’s certainly not to make a subset of citizens wealthy. Nor is it to make citizens healthy, only to provide the preconditions to make it easy for people to take care of their health. That’s actually a more difficult issue than the others because if health care is government-funded, then a line has to be drawn about how much self-destructive behavior to tolerate. And that runs smack into the right to do anything that doesn’t harm others. It’s a conflict I’ll discuss in the chapter on care.

Only now do we get to the machinery by which to implement the functions. What we want from the machinery is for it to interfere with those functions as little as possible and for it to be as effortless and invisible as possible. The business of government is essentially a boring job of solving other people’s problems. Or that’s what it is when abuse of power and corruption are removed from the equation. Quite clearly, we have some distance to go before achieving a silent, effortless and effective machine. Below, I’ll offer my ideas on how to get closer to that goal.

Important aspects of the machinery side of the tree which fall outside the traditional executive, legislative, and judicial zones are funding the government and overseeing it. Oversight is a particularly vital issue because the thing being overseen also has a monopoly on force. Given the willingness in enough people to accommodate anything the powerful want to do, it’s essential to counteract that call to power and to make sure that oversight retains the ability to rein in all abuses.

Instead of discussing these topics in their conceptual order above, I’ll take them in the order of their capacity to interfere with people’s lives. That will, I hope, make it easier to imagine how it might work in fact.

Force

Between groups

The bloody-minded we will always have with us, so it’s to be expected that even the most advanced human societies will always need to have some sort of defense and police forces. But their function has to be limited to small-scale threats. If an entire population flouts the law, a police force is powerless. It can only stop rare actions, not common ones. Likewise, the defense force of an equitable society would have to be targeted toward stopping occasional attacks by kooks of various kinds, not fullscale wars with equals or, worse yet, more powerful countries.

The reason for that is simple. Fair societies are not compatible with war. War is the ultimate unfairness, and even self-defense, in other words even a just war, is not compatible with retaining a nice sense of fair play. Wars of self-defense may be forced on a country, but that doesn’t change the facts. Justice and war are simply mutually exclusive.

No, that does not mean that an equitable society is impossible. It’s only impossible if wars are inevitable, and the evidence suggests otherwise. Looking at it from a national level, how many countries have internal wars? Some, but not all. Not even most. Somehow, this so-called inevitable state of war has been eliminated even among large groups within countries. If it can be done for some groups, it can be done for all groups.

It should go without saying, but probably doesn’t, that regressions are always possible. We could regress right back to stone-throwing cave dwellers under the right conditions. That’s not the point. The point is that war has been eliminated between some groups. How that’s done, and the huge wealth effect of doing it are obvious by now. To repeat, if it can be eliminated between some groups, it can be eliminated between all groups. It is not inevitable. Aggression isn’t about to go away, but that particular form of it known as war can and has disappeared in some cases.

Wars happen internationally because on some level enough people think they’re a better idea than the alternative. They want to retain the ability to force agreements rather than come to them. But there’s a price to pay for the method used, and it only makes sense if the price is not greater than the prize. Wars make no sense by any objective measure on those grounds. Their only real benefit is on a chest-thumping level, and even that works only at the very beginning, before the price starts to be paid.

For anyone who doubts my statement about price, I should mention that I’m thinking both large scale and long term. In a very narrow view, ignoring most of the costs, one could claim that it’s possible to win something in a war. Take the view down a notch from international to national, and it becomes clear how flawed it is. It’s as if one were thinking on the same level as a Somali warlord. If Somalia had not had a generation with no government, and hadn’t spent the time in the grip of warring gangs, anybody on earth (except maybe a Somali warlord) would agree they’d be much richer and better off in every way. Ironically, even the warlords themselves would be better off. They wouldn’t have to spend a fortune on armed guards, for starters. And yet, unable to think of a way of life different from the hellhole they’re in now, they keep shooting in the hope of winning something in a wasteland they’re reducing to nothing.

That, on an international scale, is where our national minds are. That, on an international scale is the price we also pay. What we’re losing for the planet is the difference between Sweden and Somalia. When the vision of what we’re losing becomes obvious to enough people, and when the pain of not having it becomes big enough, that’s when we’ll decide that an international body to resolve disputes is a better idea than the idiotic notion of trial by ordeal. Even if it does mean losing the occasional case. After all, that can happen in trial by ordeal too, but with much more devastation.

So, no, I don’t think that the incompatibility between fairness and war is the end for fair societies. I think it’s ultimately the end for war.

The beginnings of that evolution seem to be happening already. War is becoming less and less of an option between some countries. Even the concept of war between Austria and Italy, or Japan and France, is just laughable. They wouldn’t do it. They’d negotiate each others’ ears off, but they’d come to some resolution without killing each other.

That’s the future. An extrapolation of the past is not.

The fact that the US is closer to the past than the future doesn’t change the trajectory. Likewise with the other large powers, China, Russia, India, Brazil. The lot of them have further to go than anyone would like, but that only means regressions are possible. It still doesn’t change the direction of the path. And even the US seems to feel the need for UN permission before marching into other countries and blowing them up. That’s something I don’t remember seeing ever before. It’s a sign of a potential sea change, if they don’t zig backwards again. The next step would be to actually stop blowing people up. We’ll see if they zag forward and take it.

If violent methods are not an option as a final solution to disputes, then the only alternatives when ordinary channels aren’t working are nonviolent ones. That is not as utopian as the people who fancy themselves hard-headed realists assume. A tally by Karatnycky and Ackerman (2005) (pdf) of the 67 conflicts that took place from 1973 to 2002 indicates that mass nonmilitary action was likelier to overturn a government and — even more interesting — much likelier to lead to lasting and democratic governments afterward (69% vs 8%, and 23% with some intermediate level of civic involvement). Armed conflicts, in contrast, tended to result simply in new dictatorships, when they succeed at all. It is easy to argue with their exact definitions of what is free and how the struggles took place. But short of coming up with an ad hoc argument for every instance, the broader pattern of the effectiveness of nonviolence in both getting results and in getting desirable results is clear.

As the article points out, some of the initially freedom-enhancing outcomes were later subverted. Zunes et al. (1999) cite one notable example in Iran:

Once in power, the Islamic regime proved to abandon its nonviolent methodology, particularly in the period after its dramatic shift to the right in the spring of 1981. However, there was clear recognition of the utilitarian advantages of nonviolent methods by the Islamic opposition while out of power which made their victory possible.

The interesting point here is not that regression is to be expected when nonviolence is used as a tool by those with no commitment to its principles. The interesting thing is that its effectiveness is sufficiently superior that it’s used by such people.

That effectiveness makes little sense intuitively, but that’s because intuition tells us we’re more afraid of being killed than having someone wave a placard at us. Fear tells us that placard-waving does nothing, but violence will get results. But that intuition is wrong. Fear isn’t actually what lends strength to an uprising. What counts is how many people are in it and how much they’re willing to lose. The larger that side is, the more brutal the repression has to be to succeed, until it passes a line where too few soldiers are able to stomach their orders.

That pattern is repeated over and over again, but each time it’s treated as a joke before it succeeds, and if it succeeds it’s assumed to be an exception. The facts become eclipsed by the inability to understand them. The hardheaded realists can go on ignoring reality.

The faulty emotional intuition on nonviolence leads to other mistakes besides incorrect assessments of the chances of future success. It results in blindness to its effects in the present and the past as well. As they say in the news business, if it bleeds, it leads. The more violence, the more “story.” We hear much more about armed struggle, even if it kills people in ones and twos, than we do about movements by thousands that kill nobody. How many people are aware of nonviolent Druze opposition to Israeli occupation in the Golan Heights versus the awareness of armed Palestinian opposition? How many even know that there is a strong nonviolent Palestinian opposition? The same emotional orientation toward threats means that nonviolence is edited out of history and flushed down the memory hole. History, at least the kind non-historians get at school, winds up being about battles. The result is to confirm our faulty intuition, to forget the real forces that caused change, and to fix the impression that violence is decisive when in fact it is merely spectacular.

Admittedly, the more brutal the starting point, the less likely nonviolence is to succeed. The people whose struggle awes me the most, the Tibetans, are up against one of the largest and most ruthless opponents on the planet. Even though their nonviolence is right, it’s no guarantee of the happy ending. But — and this is the important point — the more brutal the basic conditions, the less chance violence has to succeed, as well. The less likely it is that anything can succeed in pulling people back from a tightening spiral of self-destruction. Places like the Congo come to mind. The more equitable a society is to start with, the better nonviolent methods will work.

Facts may struggle to counteract “common sense” on the effectiveness of nonviolence, but it’s easier to see that ethical methods can result in equitable outcomes whereas brutal methods don’t. The fact that armed conflict is incompatible with justice is not a disadvantage to a fair society, so long as it remembers that violence is the hallmark of illegitimacy. That’s not a difficult standard to apply, and it inoculates the society against one whole route to subversion, whether that violence is applied by the State or by smaller groups.

Another objection that’s probably hovering is something along the lines of “What are you going to do about Hitlers in this world of yours?” “What about the communists?” (Or “the Americans” if you’re a communist.) “What about invasions?” What, in short, about force in the hands of bad guys? If one takes the question down a level, it’s easier to understand what’s being asked. In a neighborhood, for instance, a police force is a more effective response to criminals than citizens all individually arming themselves. If a gang is forming, the effective response is not to wait till it attacks but to prevent its formation.

The existence of brute force threats is a symptom of a breakdown in the larger body politic. The best way to deal with them is to avoid the breakdown to begin with, which is not as impossible as it might seem after the fact. For instance, many historians consider that Hitler’s rise to power was predicated on the resentment of Germans impoverished by the post-World War I armistice deal. The desire for revenge in that deal is understandable, but that didn’t make it sensible. Taking the long view, fairness would have served everyone better.

The US right now is on a diverging path from the rest of the wealthy countries when it comes to using that wealth to give all citizens the basics of life. As Krugman points out in Conscience of a Liberal, the process started in the late 1940s when Truman’s attempt at universal medical care was shot down by whites terrified of having to share a hospital with a black. As time has gone by, racism and sexism have continued to foster many social injustices to the point where the country is acquiring a tone eerily similar to the resentful and irrational allegiance to power evident in Germany not long after the First World War. The US has some distance to go before it reaches the end stages, but this is the point at which, taking the long view, it will later be said that fairness would have served everyone better. I’m not saying it would be easy to do. I’m just saying the results work better.

At its most basic level, the argument about the need to wage war on “bad guys” is built on the flawed logic of assuming the threat, and then insisting there’s only one way to deal with it. The Somali warlord model of international relations is not our only choice.

Force against criminals

Just as war is incompatible with fairness, so is any other application of force where might makes right. Therefore force is justifiable only to the extent that it serves what’s right. It’s similar to the paradox of requiring equal tolerance for everyone: the only view that can’t be tolerated is intolerance. Force can’t be used by anyone: it can only be used against someone using it.

Force can be applied only to the extent of protecting everyone’s rights, including the person causing the problem, to the extent compatible with the primary purpose of stopping them from doing violence. The State can use only as much force as is needed to stop criminal behavior and no more.

Because the State does have the monopoly on force, it is more important to guard against its abuse in State hands than any others. Crimes of State are worse than crimes of individuals. Not only do people take their tone from the powerful, but they’re also too ready to overlook bad actions by them. So the corrupting influence of abuse is much greater when done by those in power, and it is much more necessary to be vigilant against people’s willingness to ignore it. An event such as the one where an unarmed, wheelchair-bound man was tasered would be considered a national disgrace in a society that cared about rights. If plenty of people, as in the US, viewed it as the obvious result of insufficient instant deference to a uniform, then it would be considered a national emergency.

The exercise of State power carries responsibilities as well as limits. When criminals are imprisoned, the State becomes responsible for them. That’s generally recognized, but somehow the obvious implications can be missed. Not only must the State not hurt them, it has taken on the responsibility for preventing others from hurting them as well. The jailers can’t mistreat prisoners. That much is obvious. But neither can people condone the torture of prisoners by other prisoners. The dominant US view that rape in prisons is nobody’s concern is another national emergency. Proper care of prisoners is expensive. People who don’t want the expense can’t, in justice, hold prisoners. But there should be consolation in the likelihood that the cost will be lower when prison sentences are used only when incarceration has something to do with preventing recurrence.

The death penalty is another practice that cannot be defended in a just context. Its justification is supposed to be that is the ultimate deterrent, but a whole mountain of research has shown by now that, if anything, crimes punishable by death are more common in countries with death penalties than without. If the irrevocable act of killing someone serves no legitimate goal, then it can have no place in a just society.

Another problem is the final nature of the punishment. It presumes infallibility in the judicial system, which is ludicrous on the face of it. Fallibility has been shown time and again, and tallied in yet another mountain of research. Executing the innocent is something that simply cannot happen in a society with ambitions of justice.

But perhaps the most insidious effect of having a death penalty is what it says, even more than what it does. The most powerful entity is saying that killing those who defy it is a valid response. And it’s saying that killing them solves something. The State, of course, makes a major point of following due procedure before the end, but that’s not the impressive part of the lesson. People take their tone from those in power, and for those already inclined to step on others’ rights, the due process part isn’t important. What they hear is that even the highest, the mightiest, and the most respectable think that killing is all right. They think it solves something. If it’s true for them, it becomes true for everyone. No amount of lecturing that the “right” to kill works only for judges will convince criminals who want to believe otherwise. By any reasoning, ethical, practical, or psychological, the death penalty is lethal to a fair society.

Decision-making

Voting

[Some material also in an earlier post on Democracy Doesn't Work]

The bad news is that democracy does not work as a way of making sustainable decisions. The evidence is everywhere. The planet is demonstrably spiraling toward disaster through pollution, overpopulation, and tinpot warring dictators, and no democracy anywhere has been able to muster a proportional response. The most advanced have mustered some response, but not enough by any measure. A high failing grade is still a failure.

Given that democracy is the least bad system out there, that is bad news indeed. But the good news is that we haven’t really tried democracy yet. As currently practiced, it’s defined as universal suffrage. (Except where it isn’t. Saudi Arabia is not, for some reason, subject to massive boycotts even though it enforces a complete and deadly system of apartheid.) Democracy, however, is supposed to be a great deal more than merely voting. It’s supposed to be a way of expressing the will of the people, and voting is just a means to that end. For that matter, the will of the people is considered a good thing because it’s assumed to be the straightest route to the greatest good of the greatest number. There’s a mass of assumptions to unpack.

Assumption 1: the greatest good of the greatest number is a desirable goal. So far, so good. I think everybody agrees on that (but maybe only because we’re assuming it’s bound to include us).

Assumption 2: Most people will vote in their own self-interest and in the aggregate that will produce the desired result. The greatest good of the greatest number is the outcome of majority rule with no further effort needed. Assumption 2 has not been working so well for us. Possibly that has to do with the further assumption, Assumption 2.1, that most people would apply enlightened self-interest. Enlightenment, however, is in short supply.

The other problem with assuming universally good results from majority rule, call it Assumption 2.2, is that it doesn’t nothing to protect the interests of minorities with whom the majority is not in sympathy.

Assumption 3: Tallying the votes will show what the majority wants. This is such a simple idea it seems more like a statement of fact, and yet reality indicates that it’s the easiest part of the process to rig. Most of the time, people don’t know what they want. Or, to be more precise, they know what they want — a peaceful, happy, interesting life for themselves and their children — but they’re not so sure how to get there. So a few ads can often be enough to tell them, and get them voting for something which may be a route to happiness, but only for the person who funded the ads. Besides the existential difficulty of figuring out what one wants, there’s also a morass of technical pitfalls. Redrawing voting districts can get you a majority for almost any point of view you please. Different ways of counting the votes can hand elections to small minorities. Expressing the will of the majority, even if that is a good idea, is far from simple.

However, although democracy’s failed assumptions have become clearer, one of the more optimistic ones is unexpectedly successful. (Unexpected to me, at any rate.) Evidence shows that lots of people are surprisingly much better at guessing right than most of the individuals within the group. This has the catchy name of the “wisdom of crowds,” although wisdom is perhaps overstating the case. It implies that majority rule ought to work a lot better than it does.

I think the reason why it doesn’t lies not far to seek. The experiments demonstrating crowd smarts rely on a couple of preconditions. Everybody in the group must have much the same information. And everybody in the group has to come to their decision independently. The implications for how elections must be run are obvious and rather diametrically opposed to how they’re run now. Just for a start, it implies no campaign advertising and no opinion polling.

I’ve argued repeatedly that people won’t put effort into issues of little direct interest to them. Governing the country is one of those distant activities. It’s a background noise to their primary concerns, and the best thing it can do is be quiet. Achieving a condition of effective yet quiet government takes a lot of knowledge, attention to detail, consideration of implications, and preventive action. In short, it takes professionals. Nobody is going to do the work required in half an hour on Friday night after the barbecue. Even if they had that half hour, they’d find more fun things to do during it.

The fact that people will not spend time on what feels like boring homework means we’re applying democracy at the wrong end of the process. Voters aren’t much good at governing — anyone who lives in California needs no further proof of that. They’re not even good at finding other people who can govern — anyone who lives on this planet can see that.

It isn’t that voters aren’t smart enough. They are. The problem is that hiring is a boring job. People get paid to do that. If they’re not paid, and are not responsible for the performance of the employee, there’s no way enough people will spend time carefully considering a candidate’s resume, studying their past performance, digging up clues about what the candidate really did, and trying to form an accurate assessment of probable future performance. Voters want someone who doesn’t put them to sleep, at least long enough to do their civic duty and decide for whom to vote.

That’s one of those things everybody knows and nobody mentions unless they’re being funny or cynical. As in, for instance, the following ironic comment about a British candidate’s campaign strategy:

David Cameron is direct about how the next election is not one of ideological revolution (which would only flame existing suspicions that the British have about the extent of the modernization of the Tories) but rather who would better manage the economy and government.

Because electing the best technocrat is really inspirational to casual voters.

So voters get what they want, more or less inspirational campaigns. When it turns out that doing the job requires competence, it’s too late.

Voters are no good at electing leaders. They should be unelecting them. (I’ll discuss below alternate ways of finding officeholders.) Figuring out what’s right is hard, but noticing something wrong is easy. We shouldn’t be looking to voters to craft solutions. They’d be much better at smashing messes into small enough pieces to cart away.

Of course, nobody could govern if they had to face recall elections every morning. There needs to be a threshold. The discontent needs to be widespread enough to be more than individual dudgeon or the machinations of interested parties. Ways to measure discontent need study because there’s a fine line between capturing every free-floating anxiety out there and making the process too difficult to be effective at policing officials. Petitions are one traditional way to measure discontent. Whether they’re the best way, I don’t know. The example to the right is just to give some indication of what I mean.

If 5% of the voters in the area concerned — city, state, nation, or world — or 500 whichever was larger, signed a petition for recall, and the whole recall effort was volunteer and uncompensated, then the recall election would be held soon after, say six weeks. The concerned parties could present their arguments in voter information booklets. They could have real debates, and answer real questions from real people, but they could not advertise during that time (or any other time).

However dissatisfaction is measured, the essential element is that the process must be immunized against influence either by members of the public or by the officials, which is also why the time frame involved should be short. Those wise crowds only appear in the absence of slant.

One more safeguard is needed. Consciousness of scrutiny can produce good behavior, but if the scrutiny only appears on a schedule, the same becomes true of the good behavior. Officials should be subject to random checks for which they can’t prepare. Effective methodology needs study and trial in practice, because until it’s been tried there is no fund of experience on what works. As an example of what I mean, something like random “snap unelections” might be useful. These might list those in the top five percent for complaints, even without formal petitions against them.

I am not trying to argue in favor of a particular method. Effective methods can best be found by means of longitudinal studies. The point is that the most effective methods known at the time are the ones to apply, and they should be enough to make officials do their jobs in the interests of the greatest good all the time, not once every few years.

This is also the place to discuss some of the minutiae of the voting process: delimitation of districts and methods of counting votes.

The whole process of drawing districts has reached ludicrous nonfunctionality in the US. I’m not familiar with the situation elsewhere, but it’s such an obvious way to enable politicians to choose their voters, rather than the other way around, that it probably crops up everywhere when it’s not actively stopped. And stopped it must be. It makes a mockery of the whole idea behind democracy, whether the voting is used for elections or unelections.

Political districts are simply a matter of population and ease of access to the seat of government. (And polling places, if the technology is at a level where neither mail nor electronics is reliable enough.) That is a problem in geography, not politics. Districts need to be drawn by technicians and scientists with degrees in geographical information systems, not by politicians or judges or other amateurs. In very spiky situations with concerns of bias, three separate groups of technicians could draw the lines, one group from each side and another one from halfway around the world, and the results agreed upon, or averaged, or whatever other solution works to provide an objective outcome. But however it’s done, this critical step in government can’t itself be part of the political process.

One objection voiced against purely population-based districts in the US is that some have been drawn to protect minorities, and drawing them otherwise will reduce those protections. This is an attempt to solve a problem by not addressing it. It’s like the old joke about dropping a coin around the corner, but looking for it under the streetlight because it’s easier to see there. Minority rights need protection. There’s no question about that (and I’ll discuss some methods in a moment). So they should be directly protected. It makes no sense to hope that some kind of protection might emerge from an irrelevant kabuki dance on another topic. The fact that the dance is feasible under the current political system is as relevant to the desired outcome as the streetlight is to finding the coin.

Methods of tallying votes is another bit of arcana that has come to wider attention in the US after the problems with the 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2008 elections. (It’s getting hard to pretend that these are all unfortunate exceptions with no pattern.)

The bottom line is that the method of adding up the votes can produce a variety of results, as the graphic to the right shows. The example is taken from an article in Science News, Nov. 2, 2002, by Erica Klarreich. Fifteen people have beverage preferences. Six prefer milk first, wine second, and beer third; five prefer beer first, wine second, and milk third; and four prefer wine first, beer second, and milk third. (Example from work she cites by Saari.)

Plurality voting is conceptually easy, it’s very commonly used, and it’s the worst at expressing the will of the voters. (In the example, 6 first place votes for milk is greater than 5 for beer, which is greater than 4 for wine.) It differs from majority voting in that the latter requires the winning choice to have more first place votes than the other choices combined. There is no majority winner in the example, and a second election between the two top candidates would be needed in a majority vote system.

In instant runoff voting, the choice with fewest first place votes is eliminated, and those voters’ second choice is used in the tally. (In the example, 6 for milk is less than 5 plus 4 for beer.)

Intuitively, it seems that the third system, which allows voters to rank their choices, ought to capture people’s intentions, but the actual result is to favor the least-disliked alternative. (In the example, wine is liked only by 4, but disliked by nobody. So if first place choices have 2 pts, second, 1 pt, and third, 0, then the tally is: 12 for milk, which is less than 14 for beer, which is less than 19 for wine.) I’ve seen this method at work in an academic department where it was mainly notable for favoring the blandest candidate, since that one had the fewest enemies.

A peculiar paradox can occur in multi-round voting that wouldn’t occur in single round, according to Saari. This is true whether or not the second round happens on another date or immediately after the first tally, as with instant-runoff. Increased popularity can actually cause a frontrunner to go down a notch in the tally and lose the election. The process is described in Klarreich’s article. Paradoxical outcomes, where the most popular choice doesn’t win, have been studied mathematically by Saari who’s pointed out that plurality voting does lead to the most paradoxes by far.

There is also a method called approval or cumulative voting in which each voter gets as many votes as there are alternatives. If it’s a simple up or down issue, like a recall, the number of votes per person might be one or some agreed upon number for the sake of minority protection (see below). The voter can then distribute those votes however they like. Cumulative voting was given wide exposure in Lani Guinier’s book, The Tyranny of the Majority (1994), and more recently by Brams (2001).

In the example, a beer fanatic could put all three votes on beer. Somebody who likes all three drinks equally could give one to each. The outcome of approval voting is not possible to predict mathematically since the distribution of votes depends on the voters. And that is as it should be.

Approval voting, where it’s been used, works the best at capturing the nuances of what voters want. In the US, it has been a method mandated by the federal government to rectify injustices under the Voting Rights Act. In cases where voters need to decide among an array of possible policies (rather than candidates), it’s particularly important to make sure that as much information as possible about preferences is expressed in the outcome.

Another advantage of approval voting is the relative simplicity of designing understandable ballots. In the example to the right, there are three bubbles to fill in next to each choice. It’s simple to point out that putting all one’s votes on beer, say, would use up the votes and would weight beer the most heavily.

One big problem with majority rule, even assuming that large groups have a way of making the right decision, is that “majority,” by itself does not mean “large group.” Even a mere unelection with only two choices could deliver a bogus result if only a tiny minority of voters bother to cast a ballot. Then an even tinier minority decides the issue, and there’s no crowd to generate wisdom. A quorum is an essential requirement of any election that’s supposed to be fair.

The quorum, I think, should be set quite high, such as 75% or 80% of the population voting in the particular election. In a fair society, registering to vote and voting must be as effortless as is consistent with honesty. If most of the population can’t be bothered to express an opinion when doing so is as simple as returning a postage-paid envelope, then the issue in question didn’t need a vote. It stays as it was, and the election officials try to figure out how to prevent frivolous elections from being called.

Elections could be called, either by petition, or by some other indication of popular will, or by the relevant officials, and could be held at any time, although not oftener than once per quarter. After all, I keep making the point the government should be unobtrusive to avoid citizen fatigue, and having elections every few days would not satisfy that requirement. Since a primary function of elections is oversight, not leadership, the ad hoc timing is intentional. It would reduce effectiveness if they were regularly scheduled.

I’m assuming it goes without saying, but perhaps I should be explicit about the remaining aspects of voting. The process must be as easy as is compatible with 1) secrecy of the ballot, 2) fair voting 3) transparency of the process, 4) maintaining tamper-proof records that can be recounted later.

Minority Protections

The issue of minorities is a structural weakness in democracies. Majority rule is a defining feature of democracies, so they’ll necessarily be less than ideal for minorities. The solution is not to say, “Get used to it.” Majority rule is not some desirable goal in itself. Its function is to serve the greatest good of the greatest number. However, people tend to ignore any problems that aren’t their own, and so a minority can get stepped on for no reason at all. Minority protections counteract obliviousness in majorities, and they enable minorities to require consideration of their legitimate needs. Those protections are vital because without them fairness is lost for some, and since it only exists when shared by all, then it’s lost for all. “Fairness” limited to a few is just privilege, and a dictatorship of the majority is still a dictatorship.

Various methods of protecting minority rights have generally been designed with a view to a specific minority. For instance, part of the purpose behind the number and distribution of Senators in the US was to make sure the less-populous states had louder voices in the Senate. At the turn of the 1800s when the system took shape, the important minority was farmers. Farmers remain a minority and they remain important, but they were and are far from the only minority group whose rights need protection.

What’s needed is a method to give any minority a voice. As is generally the case, what’s right is also what’s necessary for long term survival. Ignored minorities are endangering democracies, or preventing their birth in a pattern that’s far too common. Sectarian, tribal, ethnic, and racial strife are endemic at this point. Often it’s fomented by politicians with ulterior motives, but they wouldn’t be successful without a fertile substrate for their nasty work. By facilitating gradual change, democracies are supposed to prevent the need for violent overthrow, but their inability to accommodate minorities is leading to predictable results.

The most promising idea I’ve heard for giving minorities a voice is Lani Guinier’s cumulative voting (1994), also called approval voting, which I described earlier. Although it would not help a minority against an equally committed majority, which except in unusual circumstances is as it should be, it would help a focused minority against a diffuse majority. People who felt strongly about an issue, could concentrate all their votes on one choice and potentially prevail. An advantage of building minority protections into the vote tallying method is that minorities don’t have to be defined either beforehand or for the purposes of the vote. Any group that feels very strongly about an issue has a way to make its voice heard.

(There is a point of view that democracies are defined by majority rule, and any dilution of it is somehow wrong. Apparently, there’s something to this effect in Roberts Rules of Order. That idea could only be valid if there’s no difference between democracy and majority dictatorship. If the idea behind democracy is fairness, which is the only meaning that makes it a desirable form of government to most people, then one has to do what it takes to prevent majority dictatorship. That necessarily involves curbing the power of the majority.)

Sometimes, a minority might need greater protection than that afforded by cumulative voting. For instance, consider the case of a small group speaking a rare language who wanted schools to be taught in their mother tongue as well as in the dominant language. A country’s official language is hardly a matter of principle. It’s something that could be appropriately decided by vote. And yet, if it is, all minor languages will die out. Whether or not one sees the value of diversity (I happen to think it’s huge), the fact is that it doesn’t hurt anyone for the smaller groups to preserve their languages. In order to do it, though, they may need actual preference, not just improved equality, to ensure their ability to live as they like.

A similar situation is an ethnic group which is outnumbered in its home area by immigrants. (For a while that was true of Fijians and Fijian-Indians, for instance. Or, as another example, the American Indians and all the later arrivals.) Although the new place is now home to the immigrants, and it’s not as if they necessarily have a country to go back to, yet it’s just not right for a people and a culture to be obliterated at home by the weight of a majority. In that case, too, I could see a weighted cumulative voting system that protects the cultural viability of the original inhabitants.

It’s possible that majority rule would be less of a problem in a fair society, since all matters of rights are decided by law, not by vote. Only matters of opinion and preference could be subject to votes, so minority protections in voting serve as an added safeguard, not as the only one.

Officeholders

We’re used to the concept that positions requiring special skills are filled by appointees selected on that basis. The heads of a nation’s financial oversight, environmental oversight, or air traffic control are not elected. Judges are appointed, sometimes for life in the hope of ensuring their independence as well as their knowledge. Those jurisdictions where judges are elected (there are some, at least in the US) tend to show up in the news as examples of appalling ignorance and bad judgment. It would be self-evidently foolish to expect voters to evaluate someone’s qualifications to run, say, the food safety division.

Yet when it comes to running the whole state, we revert to a Romantic notion of the purity of the amateur. A heart full of good intentions is supposed to work better than a skill set. For all I know, that might even be true. We’ll never know because there is no way to reliably find these pure amateurs. Set aside worries about purity for the moment, and consider elections. There is no universe in which amateurs emerge victorious from a system that requires a small or large fortune and a life remade to fit it. We’re getting professionals. They’re just professionals at something other than governing.

I realize there’s nothing terribly new about those insights, and that the objection to trying anything else is that it will be worse. It’s back to saying that “this is the least-bad system out there.” That’s fine as far as it goes, but it’s no reason to stop trying to do better.

I’m suggesting that professionals are needed if we want professional-level workmanship. There are indeed two big pitfalls which stop people from trying that obvious solution. The first is the selection process. Judging skills is very difficult. A thorough evaluation takes much more time than people are generally willing to give, so the tendency is to go to a magic number system. Get a degree from the right school, and you’re in. Take a test that generates a grade, and we’re all set. The Imperial Chinese used elements of a test-based bureaucracy for hundreds of years before they fell, and all it led to was the most ossified system on the planet.

The selectors themselves are another weak link in the selection process. It takes one to know one, and the selectors would have to be at least as adept at governing as the pool of candidates. If they were, though, why would they be hanging around, reading applications? And that doesn’t even touch on the problems of bias or corruptibility. At least with hordes of voters, the thinking goes, it’s not possible to buy all of them and any bias cancels out. (It doesn’t necessarily, but that’s a whole different topic.)

The second pitfall is oversight. Once a person has the power granted by a government position, how do you make sure they’re doing their jobs? If they aren’t, how do you prevent the elite cliques from covering for each other? This factor has the steepest uphill climb against the tendency to forgive all things to the powerful until it’s too late.

It may, however, be possible to preserve enough randomness to prevent fossilization, enough expertise to prevent incompetence, and large enough numbers among the selectors to preserve both any wisdom the crowd might have and prevent corruption.

The thing to keep firmly in mind is that randomness is acceptable. It’s even good. We like to tell ourselves that our selection processes, whatever they happen to be, are set up to find the best. And then naturally we declare the person we have found to be the best, which proves that the process works. On the evidence, this is a circular fairy tale. A comforting one, but nonetheless nonfunctional.

There is an element of randomness in any selection process now operating, whether it’s hiring employees, ranking songs on the web, or picking the market’s stock favorites. Consider elections. Many factors aren’t controlled, and although that’s not the same as random, it might be better if it was. For instance, who runs for election to begin with has little to do with job qualifications. So we already have randomness. It’s merely unplanned.

I’ll give an example of a selection process just to illustrate what I mean. Obviously it hasn’t been tested, and it’s only by a process of trial, error, and study of the evidence that a really workable solution can be found. For low level offices such as city councils or county positions, people who felt they were qualified could put their names up for consideration. They’d be expected to show experience relevant to the position. If it was managerial, they’d be expected to show some talent at managing, even if the evidence came from volunteer work managing a kindergarten. If it required specialized knowledge, they’d be expected to show training and some experience in that field.

The selectors would not choose the actual officials. They would choose who among those who volunteered their names actually had plausible-sounding qualifications. This part of the process would work best in a computer-saturated society. Maybe it would only work in a computer-saturated society, because the pool of selectors should be as large as possible and their ranking of the candidates should be highly redundant. In other words, many selectors should each look at candidates independently and rank them as plausible or implausible. They shouldn’t know what ranks have been assigned by other selectors. Not all selectors should have to look at all candidates, but only at as many as they had the energy to read up on properly. Candidates with multiple “passes”and few or no “fails” would advance to the next stage.

The selectors themselves would be chosen from among those in the population who had the qualifications to evaluate the backgrounds of candidates. It’s the same general idea as how the pool of reviewers for academic journal articles is generated. There’s a large population with known qualifications. They can opt out of the task, but they don’t have to do anything special to opt in. Here again computers are probably essential. The database of people with the background to select candidates for given offices would be huge. The database could be compiled from an amalgam of job descriptions, both employed and self-employed, and of school records showing who received which degrees. If each application is evaluated by a few hundred people, then one could hope the crowd of independent and less-than-totally ignorant people should show a bit of wisdom.

The idea is that by having as large a pool of selectors as is consistent with the basic knowledge needed to be one, the pitfall of ignorant selectors is avoided. Possibly people would be willing to participate in the process out of a sense of civic duty and volunteerism, much as they do now on computer help forums or in the search for stardust in aerogels. If that’s not so, then there could be a formal request system, rather like jury duty has now. Qualified people would receive notification to evaluate, say, three applications, with a minimal penalty if they ignore it.

Once the selectors had narrowed down the pool of candidates to those plausibly capable of doing the job –and that’s all they would be doing, they wouldn’t be ranking them — then the actual officeholder should be selected by lottery.

I know that selection by lottery sounds odd, but it’s not really that different from current systems except for two things. One is that the pool of candidates would be narrowed to those who might be able to do the job. Two is that the process would not select according to criteria that have no relevance to the job. Both of these would be improvements. Furthermore, a lottery system would prevent at least some selector bias, and it would prevent the formation of impervious elite cliques. A plain old lottery would have as good a chance of finding the best person for the job as most of our current methods, and a much better chance if the pool was narrowed down at the beginning to those who had a chance of competence at the job. There would also be the added advantage that we couldn’t fool ourselves into thinking we were so bright that the person selected necessarily had to be the best.

(This system differs in a couple of important ways from random appointments in, for instance, the ancient Athenian concept of democracy or from sortition. (Sortition? Who comes up with these terms? “Random selection” would be too easy to understand, I suppose.) The random selection operates on a not-random pool of people with some expertise. The offices in question are those requiring expertise to administer specific functions and are not to find representatives who form a legislative body. Elections and voting are still part of the process, but they function to provide oversight instead of to select government officials.)

In a society of the far future, when fairness has been the standard for so long that all people really are equal, then the composition of the population of officeholders may cease to matter. We’re far from there yet. So one other use to which a lottery system could be put is to ensure that those in office reflect the population they’re supposed to govern. The pool from which the officials are chosen could be limited to those coming from the necessary groups. Half the positions could be filled from the pool of males, half from females, and those in whatever mix of races, ethnicities, castes, or whatever, is relevant. I’m not suggesting that people from different groups can’t feel for each other. But it’s a fact in this stupidly stratified world of ours that they often don’t, and that having people in government from otherwise marginalized groups makes a beneficial difference.

Another advantage to this system is that the candidates would not have to be good at anything except the jobs they’re doing and hope to do (and at expressing that in their background materials). They wouldn’t have to be able to stomach the campaign process in order to govern. They wouldn’t have to know the right people in order to run. They wouldn’t have to figure out which parts of themselves to sell to raise the money campaigning takes.

Higher offices, those at the level of province, state, nation, continent, or world, would be selected in much the same way with the difference that the pool would only be open to those who had proven themselves by, for instance, at least five successful years on a lower rung. The time should be long enough to make sure that an official couldn’t create problems and then escape the consequences by moving up. The track record needs to be complete enough to form a basis for judgment.

Success would be defined as complaints not exceeding some low percentage (to be discussed in the Oversight section), and, certainly, a lack of successful recall elections. It would also mean effective exercise of foresight and prevention of larger consequences in problems that arose, and it would mean a well-managed department and high morale among the personnel who worked for that official in their lower rung capacity.

This would tend to make high officials relatively elderly, since some time has to elapse before they can put their names in for national or international jobs. I would see that as a good thing, since it introduces a natural element of term limits. Ideally, the system would not depend on rapid advances in anti-aging technology to fill the highest slots.

The purpose of selectors at the higher rungs would be, again, checking the backgrounds of the officials who had expressed an interest in a higher position and removing the names of those who clearly did not qualify. The selectors shouldn’t, in this case, select who is in the pool but rather who is out of it. The idea behind that is to reduce the effects of selector bias.

An official’s life under this system would not be a sinecure. The following section on Oversight will show that’s it’s even less of a walk in the park than it seems so far. When the perils of a position are great, then the compensation has to be proportionate. Miserliness about the salaries of government officials would be a big mistake. They’re being asked to perform a difficult, demanding, and generally thankless job, and asking them to do it for peanuts is counterproductive. Their jobs, since they hold the well-being of the population in trust, are more important than private sector jobs. As such, they ought to be compensated proportionately more than private sector executives in comparable positions of responsibility. As I’ll discuss in the next chapter, I’m of the opinion that pay in the business world should have some limits. With that caveat, the compensation of government officials should exceed their business counterparts by some percentage, like 10% or 20%, over the average (mode) in the private sector. The tendency of too many voters to resent any rewards for their public servants has to be curbed.

One potential problem, even in the ideal situation of completely competent technocrats, is that nobody would think creatively. There’d be no great leaders, just good ones. Although that would be an improvement, it still feels like an unnecessary compromise to renounce the outstanding just to avoid the awful.

Maybe the continual and inevitable influx of outsiders in a lottery-based system would be enough for new ideas to percolate in. If that looked to be insufficent, then I would imagine that the two most straightforward points to change would be the candidate pool and the stringency of the selection process. Whether it’s best to loosen requirements or tighten them depends on what longitudinal studies of the results of different methods show in practice. Possibly, evidence might show other factors or other methods entirely are most associated with a selection process that facilitates outstanding governing at any given level.

Whatever the method, it’s important to guard against being too clever, primarily because that’s the likeliest excuse for trying to shift the balance of power, but also for its own sake. We, meaning we humans, really aren’t that good at looking into each others’ souls and finding the best person for, well, anything. It’s better to trust to the luck of the draw. That is, after all, how we’ve selected our leaders for all of human history, but without the benefit of requiring any evidence of qualification at all.

Laws

The biggest breakthrough in creating an egalitarian legal system came in the days of the ancient Romans. The laws, they said, should be written. That way they were accessible to everyone. They were to apply to everyone equally, and all people had the same information as to what they were.

The only part of this noble ideal that has been preserved, now that most people can read, is that the laws are written down. To make up for that, they’re incomprehensible, inaccessible to anyone outside a select priesthood, and applied unequally based on access to that priesthood. It’s an egregious example of how to deprive people of their rights without raising any alarm until it’s too late. That’s not knowledge that’s been lost since the time of the ancient Romans. More recently, Thomas Jefferson made the same point.

I know that the official justification for legal language is precision. If the laws were written in English then, God help us, we’d have to figure out exactly which implication out of many was intended. Yet, oddly enough, nobody seems to know what the stuff written in legalese means until it is so-called “tested in the courts.” And then the decision handed down becomes a precedent, that is, an example of what that law means in practice. In order not to get lost in a forest of possible interpretations, it’s customary to follow these precedents. Yet, officially, the reason we need legalese is because otherwise there could be different possible interpretations.

Furthermore, tell me which has the more unequivocal meaning: George Orwell’s piece on Politics and the English Language or any legal document you care to dig up. The whole argument that legalese is somehow more precise is nothing but a smokescreen. Its precision is an illusion generated by the common consent of an ingroup to exclude outsiders. The meaning of words is always a matter of common consent. When the meaning pertains to the laws of the land, that consent truly needs to be common, and not limited to a priesthood.

Laws in a fair society would have to meet a plain language standard. There are various ways to measure adequate clarity. One, for instance, would be to make available Orwell’s essay above, or one of Krugman’s newspaper columns, or any other clear piece of writing about difficult concepts, and see whether people who understood them correctly also understood what a new law said. If people who have no trouble understanding plain language misunderstand the new law, it needs to be rewritten until it says what it’s trying to say. Areas of the law that apply only to a specialized subset of people, maritime law for instance, would need to be comprehensible to the target group, not necessarily to those who aren’t relevant. Plain language laws are one more thing that would be much easier to do in a computer-saturated society. A few hundred independent readers would be plenty to get an accurate assessment of comprehensibility.

Another aspect of clarity besides plain speech is plain organization. At this point new laws which are revisions of older laws which expand on yet older laws which rest on seriously old laws written in an idiom so out of date they need to be translated are all tucked away in separate books of law and referenced in a Gordian knot of precedents. People get degrees for their ability to track laws through thickets much worse than that sentence. That situation, too, is rife with opportunities for conferring advantage on those in the know. It’s not accceptable in a fair society whose legal system cannot work better for some than for others.

The situation is analogous to the issues faced by programmers trying to track the changing code of a program. They’ve come up with version control systems to handle it. A very small subset of what they do is also in document management options that can track changes to text. As Karl Fogel notes, version control has application to a wide range of situations in a world where many people make changes to the work of other people. Staying for now with legal codes, a version control system identifies

  • who introduced or changed which item, whether line or paragraph or bill,
  • which other items it relates to, influences, requires changes in, or negates
  • and which items are currently proposed, being reviewed, or accepted into the main body of code.

Just the first line, showing who authored which bits of proposed legislation, would be a large change from the current opaque system. In the software world, one way to check authorship is the command “git blame.” Computer geeks have a sense of humor, but it’s nonetheless true.

A further improvement needs to be made to an eventual legal version control system. The branches and webs of related laws need to be easy to find, search, access, and understand by ordinary users with no previous training. That will take invention of new methods by experts in the presentation of information, because as far as I know, no such thing is available in any field yet.

I’ve been discussing laws as if they arrive by immaculate conception, which was unavoidable since I’ve eliminated the elected class of legislators. Who, in this system, are the lawmakers?

There are different aspects to the process of creating laws. Proposing a law to address an overlooked or new problem is just one step. Then it must be checked for redundancy. If not redundant, it needs to be written clearly, then debated, and finally passed. The checking and writing parts are specialist functions that require skilled officials as well as general input from the public.

The best originators of laws are hard to pin down. Philosopher kings, plain old kings, and priests have always made a mess of it, so far. Democracies generally have settled on the idea that there’s really no way to know. Greengrocers or dancers or doctors of law can be elected to office and their interest in the job is supposed to be a hopeful sign that they’ll write laws worth having. Their aides help them with the legalistic bits. That system has worked better than the wise men system, so why not go with it all the way? Anyone can propose a law if they see the need for it.

Again, I’m serious. Allowing anyone to propose laws is no different from allowing legislators to be elected regardless of background for the purpose of making laws. The only difference is that by making the process open there’s the chance that the Queen and King Solomons among us may contribute. There’s the chance, of course, that the really stupid will also contribute, but we seem to be surviving their help in the national assemblies of the world. Furthermore, under an open version control system, proposing the law is just the first step. The checking and debating (in papers, or internet fora, or real ones) will have the attention of professionals as well as the general public, and that would likely be a more stringent selective process than what we have now. The professionals would also have the responsibility of formally writing it down and checking the text for clarity. Redundant or superfluous laws could be weeded out at this stage, as could ones that contradict rights or accepted laws.

There are some areas of law which are necessarily specialized, but the modifications required in this system are minor. Plain language in that case means plain to the people who will be using the law. The reviewers will be those affected by it. The professionals checking its wording and validity would have the relevant specialized background. The principle, however, remains the same.

Then, last, comes the decision whether to make the new law part of the active code. I see that as another matter best left to the wisdom of a large but qualified crowd. The selectors of laws would be all those with the professional qualifications to know whether the new law agreed with guaranteed rights. A quorum would be a few hundred, and the majority favorable should be much larger than half, such as three quarters or even more. Their function is to determine constitutionality, and if they’re rather evenly split, that’s not a good sign. As with my other examples of methods, there may be better ways to achieve the goal of a streamlined, functional, adaptable, and equitable legal code. The point isn’t the method but the goal.

Moving on from the making of law to its practice, there is at least one systemic lapse that increasingly prevents justice instead of ensuring it. The time required to reach a verdict is appropriate only for bristlecone pine trees. Justice delayed is justice denied, and by that measure alone there’s very little justice to be had. This fact has not been lost on corporations who have been using lawsuits as a weapon. The Intel-AMD lawsuit comes to mind as an example. (1, 2, and links in those articles.) The few decisions actually handed down have said that Intel did abuse its market position. But then Intel appeals again, or they delay trial by finding new emails, or some other thing. Even when it’s the US Supreme Court, Intel disagrees with the decision and is appealing. I wasn’t aware that it was possible to appeal a decision by the Supremes, but one thing is eminently clear. Intel continues the disputed practices and AMD loses by it. Meanwhile, the courts labor over stalling tactics as if they meant something. (Update 2009-11-11: the endless suit was finally settled out of court. AMD settled for much less than their real damages, no doubt because they gave up hope of justice instead of delays.) By such means a good thing, due process, is turned into its opposite. The situation is so egregious that, on occasion, the lawyers themselves point it out.

Simple cases should be decided in days or weeks, medium ones in months, and complicated ones in less than a year. The legal system needs deadlines. It will improve, not hurt, the cause of justice if they have to focus on the merits of cases instead of every possible minutia that can be tacked onto the billable hours. There is no human dispute so complicated it can’t be resolved in that time unless there’s determined obfuscation. Even the US Supreme Court feels that a lawyer can adequately summarize a case in half an hour. All aspects of hearing a case can be given short and reasonable time limits.

The way cases are tried in our current system, with judge(s), lawyers, juries and the lot does not necessarily have to work against fairness. But from what I’ve seen myself, the jury system seems rather hit or miss. The deliberations for one case I was on were surprisingly short because one of the men had booked a fishing trip for the afternoon on the assumption he wouldn’t actually be called for duty. I happened to feel we came to the right decision as it was, but those who didn’t were definitely quashed by an agenda that had nothing to do with the law. There are thousands of stories along those lines and they are disturbing, but possibly they could be fixed. Maybe the system would also work better in a plain language context with short trials that didn’t waste everyone’s time.

Legal professionals are selected by the methods already outlined or by earning a degree. In other words, selectors can decide that some combination of legal training and experience has provided knowledge of the law and of rights equivalent to a degree.

Amateur juries are replaced by panels of legally trained people that are chosen with input from the two sides. Each side chooses from one to three of these professionals, depending on the importance of the case or the point in the appeals process. Those professionals, call them “judges” perhaps, then agree on another one to three, for a total of from three to nine on a panel.

The panel familiarize themselves with the case, hear the arguments of the advocates or the two opposing sides if they haven’t hired lawyers, ask the two sides questions, and ultimately hand down a decision as well as any appropriate sentence. The voices of the “middle” members of the panel could be weighted more heavily if necessary through a cumulative system, as in voting. Two further appeals with newly selected, and maybe larger and more stringently qualified, groups would be allowed, but if they all decided the same way, then the decision would stand. If they did not, the majority of decisions after a further two appeals, i.e. three out of five, would stand.

However, it does seem that the many felt shortcomings of the legal system are parlous enough to make alternate methods worth testing. My notion of one such alternative is in the example to the right.

All aspects of the system need to be tax-funded. Nobody can be financially beholden to either of the two sides. That’s essential to reduce the influence of wealth on the whole legal system. The court apparatus and all the legal professionals, including the lawyers for each side, must be publicly funded. Acquiring extra legal help based on ability to pay doesn’t fit with a fair system.

I realize that the first thing wealthier people would do is hire somebody who calls themselves anything but a lawyer and proceed from there. That has to be illegal and punishable because it subverts fairness for everyone. The model to follow might be the license to practice medicine. A license would attach to being any part of the legal profession, and one of its requirements would be to receive no outside funds of any kind. Those found offering any kind of legal advice without a license would be fined some multiple of whatever they received from their clients, with increasing penalties if they kept doing it. It really is that important to keep money out of the courts. That should be obvious from the current state of justice.

My thinking is that a system as in the example, with ad hoc collections of professionals, would cut out much of the chaff from the legal process by obviating the charade supposedly needed to keep legally inexperienced jurors unbiased. Yet it would preserve the presence of expert assistance for each of the two sides, and even add voices for them when the final deliberations were in progress. Because the legal personnel are assembled partly by the parties involved, a class of judges with undue personal power should not develop.

I know that such a minimally stodgy system seems very odd, very unlegal. Stodginess is such a constant feature in courts that it’s absence feels like the absence of law itself, or at least the absence of due process. And yet, what we see is the slow, deliberate pace being used to deny due process, not assist it.

The real issue, however, is that whatever form the legal resolution of disputes takes, whether slow or not, it should have the hallmarks of fairness. It should be equally accessible to all, it should treat everyone equally, and it should accomplish that with a minimum of effort, anguish, and expense for all equally.

Administration and taxes

These are the practical, boring parts of government. Nameless flunkies are supposed to just do them somewhere out of sight.

In many ways it’s true. They are practical and boring . . . in the same way as bricks. If they’re done wrong, the whole building comes down.

In a sustainable system, they need as much attention as principles. It’s quite possible they need more attention because they form the actual structure. They not only keep the whole edifice standing, they’re also most people’s actual point of contact with the government. Last, and far from least, precisely because they’re boring they’re an easy place to start the creeping abuse of power without causing enough resistance. So, mundane or not, it is very important for the administrative aspects to facilitate fairness instead of counteracting it.

I’ve already touched on the relation of politics to voting districts, but there is a more general sense in which the organization of a country’s — or the world’s — subunits can foster equal treatment for all. Currently, bigger is better because it gives the central government control over more resources, taxes, and people to conscript into armies. That is really the only reason to deny self-determination to smaller groups. The Turks don’t want control over some of the Kurds because they value their culture so much. The Chinese haven’t colonized Tibet or Uighur because they admire the scenery.

Administrative borders delimited according to varying criteria would be more conducive to self-determination and peace. There is no necessary minimum size for a group based on language, culture, or a shared philosophy. A viable economic unit, on the other hand, requires several million people to have enough complexity to be stable. But there is no requirement that those two have to be the same unit. Small groups could run their own schools and video stations in their own languages plus the main language of the larger group. Small units could together form one viable economic unit. Those could work together for their common benefit vis-a-vis other similar large groups.

In terms of borders, this is not that different from the nested sets of units within and between nations. The difference is that self-determination is not limited to the biggest units but is spread to the smallest units compatible with a system that doesn’t waste people’s taxes. Things that need to stay coordinated over large areas, such as transportation or roads, are wastefully inefficient when handled by many smaller units, as, for instance, railroads in the US. Things that are best handled on a local level, such as membership in a time zone, cause inefficiency when imposed from far away, as, for instance, the single time zone in all of China. The bigger the unit, the more its function is arbitration between its members and with other similar groups. People would no doubt still be calling themselves members of the same nation or group as now, but administratively it would not and should not have the same meaning.

Taxation is a supremely prickly subject, perhaps even more so than national power. The couple of points I’d like to make are that fairness requires an equal burden, and that any burden must have a limit or it becomes unfair no matter how equal it is.

An equal burden is not measured by the amount of tax. It is measured by the payment capacity of the taxpayer. That should go without saying, but if it did we wouldn’t have people suggesting that flat taxes are the “fair” solution. Paying a 50% tax for someone who makes $10,000,000 per year will have no effect on their life. It’ll mean they put $5,000,000 less in the bank. But someone who makes $10,830 the 2009 poverty level wage in the US would die of starvation if they paid $5400 in taxes. The burden is just as disproportionate if the amount is 1%, although the consequences for the poor might be less vicious. I say “might” because at a 1% tax rate government services would be near-nonexistent and there would be no safety net at all. An equal burden means that the proportion of tax paid relative to income should have an approximately equivalent felt impact across income levels.

How high a burden is too high is a matter of opinion. As a matter of data, the countries that provide significant services for the taxes they collect — medical care, education, retirement benefits, and the like — take around 40% of their GDP on average in all taxes. (That and much other tax data at the OECD.) Some of the countries in that situation, such as Australia, achieve 30% levels. Japan reaches 27%.

(Just for comparison, the US takes about 28%, but only the elderly receive funded medical care and only school children may get free education. If the money US citizens have to spend on the services provided elsewhere was added in, they’d have the highest or near-highest tax rates of any developed country. The per capita medical spending here is $7200, college spending is around $20,000 per student, which works out to around $1300 per capita. Adding in only those two items puts the US in the 46% rate, but with much worse outcomes than, say, Norway, at 44%.)

So, speaking in round numbers, the data suggest that a government can fulfill even very advanced functions on about one third of the GDP. Given also, that large numbers of people from many different cultures receive services and pay that amount without feeling wronged, an amount in that range could be considered a rule of thumb. In other words, taxes, as a matter of law and rights, could not go higher than a fixed percentage, like 35%, and for that they would have to provide advanced benefits. Better service for less cost is, of course, always an improvement. For each reduction in benefits, taxes would be reduced by law to a lower percentage. The government would be limited in how much money it could take in, at any given level of service. How that tax burden is distributed among businesses, asset owners, and income has to follow the principle that the burden is shared equally among people. In other words, a business is not a person and its taxes would be evaluated in light of how they affect the owners, workers, and customers. In the interests of transparency, the taxes should be evident, not hidden in other costs.

Last, I wanted to discuss some aspects of bureaucracy. The system I’m suggesting would depend heavily of technocrats, bureaucrats, professionals, or whatever you’d like to call them. Controlling bureaucracies is therefore essential. Unfortunately, there’s no clear path to follow. If there’s an example of a bureaucracy, whether public, private, military, educational, or artistic, that didn’t grow until it became an end in itself, I haven’t heard of it.

I’d be willing to bet there’s a very simple reason for that. It’s human nature to admire status, and that accrues with numbers of people and size of budget. It does not accrue from doing an excellent job with the fewest resources. And the size and budgets of departments depend partly on the departments themselves. The need for new hires is determined within the bureaucracy, not outside of it. The very people high enough up the scale to control hiring are the ones who gain respect, promotions, and better pay based on the importance of their empire. Bureaucracies can’t be controlled until that factor is consciously identified and counteracted.

If that reward structure was changed, there might be a chance of controlling bureaucratic growth. What that new structure should be is something management experts have been studying and obviously need to continue studying. There’s still a shortage of effective methods in the wild. Of course, the first hurdle is that the people who know how to work the current system don’t want effective methods, but that’s the usual problem of unseating vested interests. That part is not specific to bureaucracies as such. If it were to turn out that no matter what, bureaucracies can always pervert any rules and keep growing, then my whole concept of a government of specialists would be unworkable. Some other way than what I’m envisioning would have to be found to keep concentrations of power to their optimal minimum.

I’ll give an example of how I imagine limits to bureaucracy might work. Again, not because this is necessarily the best way but to illustrate my meaning.

First, there’s data on what proportion of expenses are spent on administrative and infrastructure costs in various types of organizations. For instance, Medicare has been much discussed lately. Krugman notes that it has 2% administrative costs against the private insurers’ 11%. Others give the figure as 3% or 6%. Among non-profits, food banks have near-zero administrative costs, whereas museums, given the exacting nature of their requirements, tend to be around 15%. Research institutions, whether university, federal, industrial, or military, have administrative and infrastructure costs in the low 30% range. As with so many things discussed so far, there is no one right answer. But, for a given situation, it is possible to find out what people spend on administrative personnel and infrastructure, to compare that to what the more effective institutions in that class spend, and to set realistic limits. Those limits should probably be set somewhat higher than the best-in-class. We’re not all geniuses, and the first priority is good service, not a government which is the low price leader.

The limits as a percent of the budget would be set outside the bureaucracy in question, and based on data collected across the whole functionally comparable sector. The percentage amount would not be subject to appeal. The bureaucracy would have to account for its spending, but it wouldn’t be submitting budget requests. They’d do their jobs with a fixed amount of money and there’d be nothing to request.

If a department’s functions changed — if, for instance, a breakthrough like the invention of PCR meant the Patent Office would be processing vastly more inventions based on that — then the department would submit evidence of the change to the equivalent of a General Accounting Office which would decide whether or how their budget needed to be adjusted.

From an outsider’s perspective, one big source of bloat in bureaucracies is management layers. Ranks, like budgets and pay scales, should also be limited externally to the flattest structure compatible with effective management. Ranks should not be at the discretion of the department head any more than staffing.

Forms are an ever-present aspect of bureaucracies and probably the main avenue of interaction with them for the general public. Commenting on such a picayune thing as forms may seem odd, but abuses start in the small stuff. Just as more bodies means more status for the very person doing the hiring, similarly paperwork is a way for bureaucrats to act like they’re doing a job. What makes it bad is that they are the ones with sole discretion about the forms they generate. In a system that expects bureaucrats to run things, forms will likely metastasize unless their growth and proliferation are checked.

If bureaucrats are really to be public servants, then an important factor in their jobs is to consult the convenience of their masters. That means forms must be as few in number and as simple and non-repetitive to fill out as is compatible with getting the job done optimally.

There should be explicit limits on the number and length of forms in any given department. If a new form is needed, the department then has to figure out which old one is obsolete. There should also be explicit limits on how long it takes a naive user to complete all the paperwork necessary to achieve a given result. (The US government prints estimates of how long it will take to complete its forms. No limits, just estimates. It’s the beginning of the right idea, but the estimates are so low they can only be explained by time travel.) What the limits should be is a matter of opinion perhaps best decided by vote . . . . I say that knowing perfectly well that I and everyone else would always vote for zero as the appropriate amount of time to spend on forms, so, yes, to some extent I’m being facetious. But, in all seriousness, setting limits on forms is essential, whatever the best method to that end turns out to be.

Paperwork is a symptom of a much larger issue. It indicates whether government serves the citizens or the continued employment of its officials.

Last, one of the things bureaucracies are famous for is ducking responsibility. As I noted in earlier chapters, leaving that loophole open is not a minor lapse. It goes right to the heart of a fair system that requires accountability. Government by committee is not compatible. Government by passing responsibility up to higher levels is also not compatible. Responsibility and the control relevant to it needs to rest with the lowest level official who can effectively carry it. Responsibilities and control must be clearly demarcated to prevent officials from passing it up the line — or down to someone without enough control over the decision. The person who controls the decisionmaking is also the one who must sign off on it, and who will be held responsible if fault becomes an issue.

In summary, decision-making in an equitable and sustainable system would differ from our current one in fundamental ways. Changes range from the far-reaching to the mundane, from the end of war and opaque laws to disciplined bureaucracies.

[Continued in Government 2: Oversight]

 

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Sex and Children

Relationships

This may be the chapter people turn to first because of the title, but the only thing to say about sex is that there is nothing to say. The role of government is to enforce rights, to stop people from stepping on each other. There is nothing about consensual sex that is the business of government.

On the other hand, marriage has to do with sex, or is supposed to, and the powers-that-be have always had much to say about it. That relates partly to the joy of messing about in other people’s business, but partly it also has to do with something real. Families are the irreducible unit in the social mix, and all societies recognize that by giving them legal rights. Hence the role of government in what could be construed as a private matter. The few societies that have tried to ignore those bonds, such as the early Communists, have failed. Families aren’t called “nuclear” for nothing.

In fairness, though, the recognition of the strength of the bond between people who love each other has to apply to everyone equally. It shouldn’t be limited to biological or sexual relationships. The germ of that idea lies behind the right to adopt, but there’s no reason why voluntary lifelong commitment should be limited to the parent-child relationship. (Well, it’s voluntary for the parent(s). Children’s rights are discussed later.) Any pair or group of people who have a lifelong commitment to support each other should have the legal rights of families. And the same legal obligations if they decide to part ways.

Last, there is the nasty topic of sex crimes. Let’s be clear from the start: these are not an unfortunate form of sex. They are crimes that use sex. Like any other crime, they are completely the business of government. I’d maintain that since they affect people at a point of maximum vulnerability and can poison much of life’s joy, they should be dealt with much more severely than nonsexual crimes. Other crimes that attack vulnerable people are penalized more severely, or at least are supposed to be, such as profiteering in time of disaster or violence against toddlers.

The hallmark of a sex crime is the lack of consent, which of course implies that if consent can’t be given, a crime has been perpetrated regardless of any other factor. So, for mentally competent adults to have sex with the mentally incompetent or with children is, ipso facto, criminal. Sex among young but sexually mature adolescents is a much grayer area. If no abuse of any kind of power is involved, then it’s hard to see how it could be called criminal, although each case would need to be considered on its own merits. As with gray areas in other aspects of life, the fact that they exist does not change the clarity of the obvious cases. It’s simply another situation where the rules are the same — in this case that sex must be consensual — which means that the remedies may vary.

Another favorite bugbear of the restrictive sexuality proponents is that any freedom will lead to no limits at all. What, they worry, will stop people from marrying dogs? The answer is so blazingly obvious, the question wouldn’t even occur to a normal human being, but since there seem to be some very odd people around, I’ll be explicit. An animal can’t consent, so bestiality comes under the category of cruelty to animals.

Parents

The current concept of parenting goes right back to the one provided by Nature: it’s something for everyone to do to the maximum extent compatible with survival. This works well in Nature’s merciless biological context. It produces lots of extra offspring, who are selected against if they’re less adaptable than their peers, and over time the species gets better and better. To put it in plain English, the system works if enough children die young.

As human beings, we’re having none of that, and we’ve been quite successful at the not-dying-young part. But we’re still determined to follow Nature’s program as far as maximum parenting goes. This has not been working out well for us. We’re an ecological disaster, all by ourselves.

It’s important to fully absorb the fact that Nature always wins. There is no way to continue overpopulating the planet and to also get off scotfree. It isn’t going to happen. We may be able to put many more people on the planet than we once thought possible, but space on the earth is finite and reproduction is not. There is no way, no way at all, to avoid Nature’s death control if we humans don’t practice birth control first. One way or the other, our numbers will get controlled. We don’t get to choose to reproduce without limits. We only get to choose whether the limits are easy or lethal.

The limits themselves are a matter of biological fact within the bounds set by what one sees as an acceptable lifestyle. The earth can hold more people who have one mat and one meal a day than people who want two cars and a summer house. That’s why estimates of the Earth’s carrying capacity for human beings can vary all the way from 40 billion down to two billion.

However, it’s academic at this point what a desirable carrying capacity might be because under any comfortable lifestyle scenario we’re already either above that level or very close to it. (AAAS, 2000) It’s becoming more critical by the day to at least stabilize population, and preferably to reduce it to a less borderline level. On the other hand, without totalitarian controls and a good deal of human suffering, it seems impractical to try to limit people to fewer than two children per couple. So the answer to our current reproductive limits is rather clear, even without extensive studies.

The good news is that two children per couple is actually slightly below replacement levels because not everyone reproduces, and of those who do, some have only one child. That limit would allow for a very gradual reduction of our over-population until some previously agreed, sustainable level was achieved. At that point, an egalitarian system — a raffle of sorts, perhaps — could be applied to fairly distribute the occasional third child permit.

In the real world, it’s not always couples who raise children, although I’ve been discussing it that way because it takes a pair to produce them. (Yes, I’m aware that with new genetic engineering methods it can get more complicated than that. However, it’s still about people producing children, and the number of children per person doesn’t change based on the means of production. Only the method of doing the math changes.) The right to have children should, obviously, apply to everyone equally, but there’s the usual stumbling block that although the number of children women have is not subject to doubt, the number of children men have can be much harder to guess. A fair method requires some way to determine who is the male parent, and in this technological age that’s easy. All that remains is to apply the methods we already have.

And, no, that would not be a DNA test one could refuse. The socially essential function of fairly distributing the right to have children takes precedence over the right to refuse to pass a toothpick over the inner cheek cells to provide a sample. It’s a parallel case to the requirement for vaccinations in the face of an epidemic.

I know that I’ve used the dreaded word “permit.” It leads to the difficult question: How are these desirable limits to be achieved?

There are a non-punitive measures that limit the number of children in families to smallish numbers, and all those measures would already operate in a fair society. First, people must have enough security in old age that they don’t need a small army of offspring as their own personal social security program. Second, women must have their rights to self-determination, education, and other occupations besides motherhood. (An example from just one study of abortion rights in India, 2005.) Judging by the experience of developed European countries, those two things bring the rate of reproduction close to replacement level. Maybe with the addition of strong cultural support for families with no more than one or two children, other measures might only rarely need to be applied. Advertising, mass media, and social networks would all have to send the same message, in a similar way as they do now, for instance, about the undesirability of smokers.

However, limits laid down in law would still be necessary if for no other reason than to stress their importance and to provide recourse against the occasional social irresponsibles who we will always have with us. The punishments for exceeding those limits would have to be rather different than for other anti-environmental excesses. After all, nobody on earth would want to, how should I say this?, “remove” the children. Incarcerating the parents also wouldn’t be helpful. It would create problems and solve none.

What’s really at stake is a special case of environmental mitigation. Just as an industrialist would be required to pay for cleanup, likewise parents would be required to pay the excess costs brought on by the overpopulation they’re facilitating. But that doesn’t really help to put a price on it. The immediate actual cost of just one extra child in a whole country is nothing. If the actual cost of everyone having extra children were visited on just one pair of parents, the richest people on the planet would be ruined.

So actual costs unfortunately don’t provide actionable information. One would have to fall back to the merely practical and set the level high enough to be a deterrent, but not so high as to be ruinous. Just as with incarceration, ruining the parents creates more problems than it solves. A deterrent is necessarily a proportion of income and assets, not an absolute amount, and the higher the level of discretionary funds available, the higher that proportion needs to be. For the poorest, one percent of income might be enough of a motivation, whereas for the richest the level might have to be fifty percent. Time and experience would tell. Furthermore, like unpaid taxes, this overpopulation mitigation cost could not be avoided by bankruptcy, and if it were not paid, it could be taken straight from the individual’s pay or assets. And the amount would be owed for the rest of one’s life. There’s nothing naturally self-limiting about the effects of overpopulation, and neither should there be for the deterrent implemented to prevent it.

There’s one technical aspect to replacement levels that has a big effect but that people sometimes ignore. Aside from absolute number of children, the age at which those children themselves reproduce changes population numbers. Just to make that clear, let me give an example. Consider a sixty year span of time. If a couple produces two children at thirty, and those children each have a child apiece when they are thirty, then the total number of people after sixty years, including all three generations, is six. If, instead, everybody reproduces at fifteen, there are five generations after sixty years and the total number is ten. Everybody has only one child each, but age at reproduction has a big effect on total numbers. The longer lifespan becomes, the more critical this effect is. If lifespan increases very gradually, that might not matter, but should there suddenly be a medical advance that has us all living to 400, it would again become important to adjust reproductive rates downward or suffer the consequences of reduced quality of life. I wouldn’t be hugely suprised — maybe just a bit surprised — to see noticeably lengthened life spans, say to 120 or so, as a consequence of stem cell therapies, so even in the near future this discussion is not completely theoretical.

Producing children has always been socially as well as personally important. But fairness requires changes to its significance. Who has sex with whom has zero public significance, and the sooner that’s universally recognized, the sooner we can stop generating massive suffering by unfairly, unethically, and immorally interfering in each others’ lives. On the other hand, parenting has huge environmental consequences which are ignored at this point. We’re used to that luxury, but that doesn’t make it right.

Children

The first thing that has to be said about children is that they have rights. They have none now, at least not in law. Where children are involved, the discussion is about how much damage parents can do before their rights are revoked in favor of the state. To find other human beings with similar status, one has to go back to the days when people argued about how much husbands could beat their wives.

Any mention of actual children’s rights is written off as impractical, just as every other expansion of rights to former chattel has been, and with about as much actual merit. I’ll discuss below some possible ways that children’s rights could be implemented, although there may well be much better and more practical ways to achieve the desired result.

Another class of objections is variations on the theme that any rights will result in a dictatorship of rude, free range children. That’s nothing but a false dichotomy between absolute parental rights and absolute children’s rights. Those are not our only choices. This is yet one more case, perhaps the most difficult case of all, where many different rights have to be balanced. An issue that depends on balance cannot be solved by saying balance is too difficult. With echoes of other similar excuses, it’s amazing how consistently the corollary is that all power has to stay in statu quo.

All that said, there are major differences between children’s rights and those of any other class of people because of children’s lack of experience. Rights for children does not imply that they should suddenly dictate how schools or families are run. Their usual ideas on those topics would prove neither sustainable nor effective. Under normal circumstances, parents need to be the final authorities on what children do for the sake of the children themselves. But that’s under normal circumstances. It’s in abnormal circumstances that the problems arise, and it’s those situations that children’s rights must help rectify.

There are other differences based on the lack of experience. It’s plain that children would not do well as voters, soldiers, drug takers, or drivers. It’s plain that they have much to learn and need teachers. However, the fact of their different needs is a reason to satisfy those needs, not to deprive them of all rights. Parents don’t own their children. This is another aspect of parenting, besides producing the children to begin with, where we have latitude to step on the rights of others, and where each individual needs more limits than we have now, not less. That’s never a welcome message, not for polluters, and not for you and me. But it’s true. In a fair world, children have rights.

Children have the same fundamental right to be secure in their own persons as any human being. The exercise of all other rights depends on that one in adults, and the same is true of children. That means it takes the same precedence for children as for adults. And that means the child’s rights take precedence over parental rights when the adults are being abusive.

Parenthetically, I want to comment up front on the cost issue. I get the sense that the primacy currently given to parental rights is at least partly due to a rather broad-based horror at otherwise having to care for strange kids. It’s true and it’s unavoidable that the right to escape an abusive situation is going to be more expensive for society than ignoring the problem. But the fact that it’s cheaper is not an adequate reason for allowing some people to suffer at the hands of others. It’s not adequate when everyone is the same age, and it’s not adequate among different ages. Furthermore, just as a practical footnote, I’m not at all sure that the overall cost of enabling children to escape abuse really would be more expensive. Abused children go on to become some of the most expensive adults in society, and this may be yet one more instance where prevention turns out to be cheaper than cure.

What constitutes abuse is another prickly issue because teaching children what is acceptable behavior sometimes requires physical measures. However, this is not a unique situation. Adults sometimes have to be physically restrained from bad acts as well. We have models for what is appropriate corrective action, and it does not involve beating people up. Also, in a child’s case, the motivation has to be teaching, not simply a removal from society of an offending element. In other words, the good of the child is the primary criterion, and not the convenience of adults. Taking both those criteria together, it seems to me that it’s possible to define physical restraint versus abuse, and a wholesome upbringing — one that gives the child options — versus one that’s nothing but limits.

Medical treatments are one area where the rights of children have to differ from those of adults. Given children’s lack of experience, that probably goes without saying. Again, the criterion is the benefit to the child and keeping their future options more open, not less. Making sure a child gets necessary medical treatment for health is an essential parental function. That doesn’t mean all medical treatments are at the discretion of adults. When benefit to the child is the criterion (as it always should be), then body-altering treatments for the sake of a beauty pageant are arguably child abuse.

A core right of children, as of adults, is the right to a living. It’s a much more expansive right for children, of course. Since we adults produced them and have a responsibility toward them, they have a right to be supported mentally and emotionally as well as physically. They have, furthermore, the right to be given the skills needed to make their own living when the time comes.

That’s not a startling idea. It’s been more or less standard practice since before the dawn of humankind. The difference, though, is that having an explicit right means there can be no “less” about it. A defined level of care and education has to be provided, and if it’s lacking the child has the right to get it elsewhere and the state has the obligation to make that financially possible by exacting support from the parents and supplying any shortfall. Except for the fact that the right to leave rests ultimately with the child, there’s nothing unusual in that idea either.

Another legal difference should be that minors’ rights and responsibilities relate to each other. There is something fundamentally skewed about pronouncing a person old enough to take on major responsibilities, such as supporting oneself, but simultaneously insisting that they’re not good enough to have rights. If they’re old enough to be legally obliged to support themselves, they’re old enough to vote, to decide which drugs to take, and who to have sex with.

The corollary is that they have the right not to work until that age as well. If, for whatever reason, their parents cannot support them, it comes the responsibility of society at large or of the state, to do so. That’s been a generally recognized idea since the dawn of time, and has had various implementations. Extended families are not always extended enough these days. Orphanages have fallen out of favor, and foster families have taken their place. I’m not sure that a well-run and -staffed orphanage isn’t better than some foster situations, but whichever solutions or combinations of solutions a society uses, the point remains the same. Children have a right to have their physical needs met in an emotionally kindly environment that gives them enough knowledge to earn a living when the time comes.

The right not to work, however, is not the same as a prohibition against working. If children are citizens with rights, within the limits of their lack of experience, it makes no sense to deny them the choice to work if they want it. I realize that at the current levels of accepted exploitativeness — accepted, not even egregious exploitativeness — any suggestion that children could work if they wanted to is likely to be met with scorn. However, as a matter of simple fairness, if children were reliably free agents in the decision, there’s nothing ipso facto bad about children working. Such work has two limiting characteristics: it is not physically taxing and it does not interfere with the time the child needs to stay healthy, to learn, and to play. There’s a difference between sometimes babysitting or doing garden work for the neighbors, and stunting one’s growth by working twelve hours a day in a carpet factory or a diamond mine.

One point that’s cropped up several times already is that children have the right to enough education and skills to make them fit for life on their own. That means free public education up to a degree that’s sufficient to enter work that pays a modal income. That was once the idea behind free schooling in the US. At the time, a high school diploma was enough to get good work. In Europe that principle carried forward into modern times when university education became freely available. (At least until the Eurozone started following the US example and trying to water that down.) In the US, sadly, the original idea has been almost lost, but it was a good one. It is a hallmark of a fair society that it gives all its citizens equal tools when starting the business of life.

The more intangible freedoms, those to thought, speech, religion, and movement, have varying degrees of application to children. They’re all rather meaningless to a toddler, but they acquire meaning gradually, without any strict on-off switch to make things easy. It would make sense, it seems, to have target dates for the application of various rights, but if a specific child has decided to exercise one of the rights earlier, then the validity of doing so should be decided on a case by case basis. There have, for instance, been several high school free speech cases recently which have involved political speech issues, such as criticism of school policy. They haven’t been excuses for porn or bullying. And yet they’ve been decided in favor of the powers-that-be simply, as far as I can tell, because to decide otherwise would be to admit that minors have rights. That’s the kind of thing explicit children’s rights should prevent.

The application of rights to children could be eased if they weren’t quite as all-or-nothing as they are now. Children grow gradually, and maybe a gradual increase in rights would better suit the situation. For instance, the right to vote could start with municipal elections. (In the US situation, that includes school boards, which could turn into a true exercise in democracy.) A couple of years later, county, province or state elections would be included, and finally national and then, when the world has reached that stage, international ones. The right to support shouldn’t go from 100% to 0% at the stroke of midnight on a given birthday. It could decrease by 20% a year between 16 and 21. Legal responsibility for criminal activity, likewise, doesn’t have to go from nothing to total. The requirement to get schooling could be transformed into the availability of free schooling and ultimately, depending on the country’s resources, the need to pay some fees. Drug-taking could be allowed first for “low-voltage” substances like beer, marijuana, or coca leaves. As the age of greater and greater discretion is achieved, the limits would be fewer.

I’ve stressed repeatedly that children’s lack of experience affects which rights are useful to them. It also affects whether they can exercise them. Saying that children have rights, but then not providing any means to compensate for their huge inequality in any struggle with adults is to render those rights meaningless. So the question is really a specific and acute instance of the more general problem of how to give weaker parties the tools to deal with stronger ones.

For children, the most meaningful and practical means of exercising the most basic right to live free of abuse would be the right to leave it. They should be able to get a divorce, as it were, from a bad situation. The parents would be assessed child support which would be paid to the new caregivers. It would be up to the child who that would be. If another family was willing to take on their care, then that arrangement could be formalized. Alternatively, the child might decide that a State institution, whether foster care, halfway houses,or orphanages, was preferable to an abusive home.

The means available to children to put rights into practice are the most difficult issue. I don’t see any solution that does not involve bringing other adults into it. (That isn’t to say there may not be better solutions; only that I can’t imagine them. Whatever the best methods are, the point is always to make sure that children can, in fact, exercise their rights.) The other adults could, at least in the first line of defense, be any of the older people a child knows: neighbors, teachers, pediatricians, nurses, or relatives.

This friendly adult when approached by a child for help would be under an obligation to consider the merit of the situation. If it’s a complaint about being made to eat peas at dinner time, then further action would be unwarranted. If it looks like it might be more than that, the adult would be obliged to help the child talk with a children’s ombudsman, or whatever that office might be called when we’re finally lucky enough to have it. The fact that a child can ask any adult for help ought to be a clear and present part of the curriculum from the earliest days of day care up through grade school.

The necessity of having many workers specialized in advocating for children would cost money. That is not a sufficient reason to give up on children’s rights. Nobody complains that police are a luxury and that we should just learn to deal with crime on our own because it’s cheaper. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: the same is true of children. Their inalienable rights must be enforced, and the expense of doing so is simply part of being a fair society. Besides, the fewer abusive adults there are, the smaller the child advocacy offices can be. People who want to reduce the money spent on abused children need to figure out how to deal with the adults causing the problem, not the children suffering it.

The thing about children’s rights is that currently, assuming a normal family and school and community, they’re not nearly as far off the mark as many of our other deviations from fairness and justice. That may not be too surprising given that most normal people care about children, certainly more than they do about any other class of human beings. There aren’t that many changes needed in normal situations. Where society fails badly is in the abnormal cases, the ones where children are neglected, abused, or preyed upon. And the core reason for that failure is that children have no rights. The optimum balance will be enough rights for the child to avoid, escape, or stop bad situations without interfering in benign families that require no interference.


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Presenting information: an energy example

(return to Environment chapter)

The purpose of this piece is to show how presenting information can help decision-making, for instance before voting.

Most of this piece provides background, the sort of thing a voter could look up by following links in voter education material. Ideally, information could be pursued to any depth desired. I’ve tried to write in that spirit with links to original or at least authoritative sources, but it’s beyond my resources to do that to the standard I would hope to see in a government agency or a watchdog organization. The idea here is just to give a general example, not an exhaustive one. The actual example of what might appear at the top level, the least “effortful” one, is the diagram at the end. The rest is a second layer of more detailed information, and some of the links lead to yet deeper layers.

Let’s assume a broad policy decision is needed about which forms of energy should receive the most development and resources. The calculus in these cases is always to get the most benefit for the least cost. (It is, interestingly enough, very difficult to find comparable numbers on the total cost of different forms of energy. That right there is an example of why good information is essential to good decisions, and an uncomfortably clear indication of why we have so many bad decisions on these issues.)

So let’s get to it. The cost – benefit factors for each form of energy are constrained by the total energy available from a given source and the amount that can be recovered in practice, by the cost of its infrastructure, and by its environmental and medical consequences. (An earlier and more detailed summary of energy pros and cons is here.)

Projected Needs

First, which sources of energy are large enough to satisfy current and projected needs? There is, after all, no point devoting disproportionate resources to a source that’s prevented by the laws of physics from delivering benefits that exceed the costs.

The world’s current energy budget is around 14 terawatts per year (e.g. MIT Energy Research Council, 2006 (pdf)). However, since this exercise is to decide on a course of action for the future, projected needs are even more important. There are a number of different variables to consider. Does one include improved conditions for the world’s poor? If so, they’ll be using more energy and the estimate goes up. How much growth is expected? Or should we be talking about how much is desired? The Rolls Royce estimate of energy needs in 2050, the one assuming growth for everyone unlimited by the availability of energy or irritations like global warming, is around 60TW per year (pdf). The “let’s all huddle over a cold grate” estimate is only somewhat more than we use now.

The estimate currently considered acceptable assumes a 2% growth rate, which is supposed to provide some improvement in developing countries, allow for expected population growth, and maintain standards in the developed world. (IEA, World Energy Outlook 2004 (pdf), and OECD, “Energy: The Next Fifty Years” (pdf), Belcher & Nocera, MIT lecture, and one of the linchpin articles: Hoffert et al., 1998, in Nature as well as a popular take on it.). Those estimates converge on approximately 28 terawatts needed in 2050. Looking beyond 2050 and assuming continued growth, the need is higher.

Projected needs including efficiency improvements.

But — and this is really important, so I’ll put it in caps — BUT if energy efficiency were applied to the extent possible in transportation, buildings, and industrial processes, the estimate of energy needed drops. In that case, assuming 2% growth for everyone, including the poor, projected needs for 2100 fall to 7TW. (Also see e.g. Rosenfeld (pdf), and American Solar Energy Society, 2008(pdf).) Seven terawatts. For a better standard of living than we have now. Our biggest “source” of energy is simply not wasting it. (At 2050 we’d still be in transition because of how long it takes to replace old inefficient buildings. Demand would be at its peak, 21TW, which even then is less than 28TW.)

So the range of estimates of energy required a few decades hence ranges from 7TW to more than 60TW, depending on the path chosen.

Fossil fuels

These are the most familiar forms of energy, and the ones whose pros and cons require little discussion. In terms of their ability to provide the needed energy, right now only oil is capable of providing for any and all energy needs, with a strong assist from coal and natural gas. Unlike other sources of energy, the physical plant is in place for fossil fuels and there’s no long construction lead time as there is in varying degrees for newer types of sources. On the minus side, all fossil fuels have associated environmental coss. Fossil fuels are not sustainable, so their cost has to include the cost of moving to something that does not mortgage the future.

An often overlooked point is that costs of fossil versus alternative fuels are generally calculated on a non-comparable basis. “The cost of conventional fuel is calculated on a marginal basis while alternative fuel costs are calculated on a fixed cost basis. Meaning the cost of roads, trucks, and mining equipment is not factored into the price of each piece of coal, only the marginal cost of producing each ton of coal. For solar and wind energy systems, the cost to construct the system is factored into the total cost while the marginal cost of producing electric is virtually free.”

In order to make a real comparison of all fuels, the fixed costs of fossil fuels need to be included. Such as all the roads which are essential to their distribution, for instance. Otherwise one is comparing apples and cheese doodles, and has no real sense of the actual price paid for a technology. It’s not enough to say that all the fossil fuel infrastructure is already paid for and no longer matters. At some point it all has to be replaced, repaired, repaved. I’ve included a factor for environmental and health costs, but not things like highway and rail infrastructure since I couldn’t find any estimates for that. It’s worth remembering that the cost-benefit ratio for fossil fuels has nowhere to go but worse, as bad as it is.

If we had fair pricing now, one that budgeted for the minuses as well as the pluses, fossil fuels would be nearly the most expensive choice, not the cheapest.

Nuclear Energy

Nuclear fuel, contrary to popular image, has the same problem of unsustainability as fossil fuel. (A more detailed discussion of the issues with nuclear energy, with links to sources, is here.) Uranium is a finite resource. Using it on the scale required to supply much of the world’s energy means it would run out within several decades. So nuclear energy, too, would have to include the cost of transition. It would also have to include the cost of construction, of decommissioning, of waste storage, of security measures, and of medical expenses.

Using breeder reactors is sometimes mooted as a solution to the sustainability problem, but the price would have to include much larger funds for waste storage, environmental damage, decommissioning, medical expenses, and the effects of proliferation.

Those radiation-related problems are well-known, even when ignored. It’s less appreciated that nuclear energy has too long a lead time to be a practical way out of the energy crisis.

The US consumes about a quarter of the world’s energy, so its share is around three and a half terawatts. One seventh of the current requirement, i.e about 14%, is half a terawatt, or 500 gigawatts. For the US to supply that rather small amount of current needs from nuclear power the country would need to build a new gigawatt nuclear plant every month or so for the next thirty five years. Since reactors last some thirty years, replacements would have to start being built before the project was finished. The construction and decommissioning schedule, and their expense, would have to be continued until the uranium ran out. All that effort would yield a decreasing proportion of overall power as needs increased over time.

(Nuclear energy, at least so far, has not had a pricing structure that rewards small-scale, distributed methods like efficiency. Even though the laws of physics don’t make them mutually exclusive, efficiency is a low priority in nuclear-driven scenarios. Hence the assumption that need would increase with time.)

Since nuclear reactors cannot produce more than a fraction of the energy needed, even allowing for an improbably brisk pace of construction, they cannot be more than a small and temporary part of the energy picture.

At that level of usage — supplying one seventh of energy needs — the uranium which it’s practical to extract would be gone in about fifty to one hundred years, assuming no new finds of large deposits.

After the uranium ran out, the cost of decommissioning and waste storage would continue. Decommissioning and construction of waste facilities are both very expensive, but after that the costs wouldn’t be large in any given year, barring accidents. However, they would continue for tens of thousands of years. (Maybe less after a recent breakthrough, although that would involve other construction and decommissioning costs.) Given an obligation on the part of the people who get the energy to pay the costs, those would all come due over the thirty year life of the reactor.

Biofuels

Biofuels have some ramp-up costs and, like any combustible fuel that produces secondary compounds, have environmental implications. Let’s assume for the sake of argument that they’re produced only from agricultural waste or ecologically responsible algal plants, so that we can avoid considering the social costs of taking land away from food production or the environmental costs of destroying natural areas.

The social and environmental costs are the very opposite of trivial under current methods of biofuel production.

The theoretical maximum of energy obtainable from biofuels is equivalent to burning every formerly living thing on the planet, so it’s irrelevant. The technically feasible maximum depends on what’s acceptable. If biofuels are made from crops and all arable land is used, the limit is about seven terawatts. Depending on how important it is to eat, the practically recoverable portion is correspondingly less. If only agricultural waste or algal products are used, then it’s much less. Another tangential factor is the amount of fresh water needed to make biofuels, since fresh water is also in increasingly short supply. Biofuels, therefore, can only be a small part of the energy budget. That doesn’t mean they’re useless, but it does mean there’s no point hoping biofuels could solve, for instance, the transportation fuel problem by themselves.

“Minor” renewables

Other renewables, wind, ocean power, and hydroelectric, also have maximum limits on the amount of energy they can deliver. Those limits can be pushed to some extent as we get better at extracting the available energy, but they’re all about an order of magnitude away from actually satisfying current needs. Wind, for instance, has a theoretical maximum around 870TW according to one estimate, or 300TW (ppt) according to another. The practically extractable amount, however, is about 2-4TW. That number could rise as we learned to extract energy from lower speed winds, but it would not rise tenfold or by enough to allow wind power to be a universal solution to energy needs. The limit is based on the total wind energy available in places where we could use it.

The numbers for some other sources are taken from the same powerpoint presentation linked above by Lewis of Caltech. Ocean power, including currents, tides, and waves: practically recoverable maximum of around 3TW. Hydroelectricity: 4.6TW theoretically available, 1.5TW practically recoverable. So, again, these renewables can be partial solutions, and may be the best solutions in given cases, but they can’t be the whole solution.

Geothermal is one renewable source that does have the theoretical potential (42TW) to meet reasonable future needs, but there are a number of caveats on that figure. The ocean’s potential is 30TW of that. Land-based potential is closer to 12TW. If the heat is bled off too quickly, the site needs time to warm back up, so it’s renewable, but not inexhaustible.

Geothermal comes in two flavors: small scale shallow heat pumps that could be used in many places, and much higher yielding deep boreholes that depend on heat from past or current volcanic processes. The water used in the latter will wind up with lots of dissolved, corrosive minerals and a goodly amount of toxics such as sulfur compounds, mercury, or arsenic. The boreholes go over 10km deep, which is currently too expensive to drill economically just for heat (as opposed to oil). It would require yet-to-be-invented breakthroughs to make such drilling feasible on an industrial scale. There’s also the disadvantage that these are large, complex, not easily accessible construction projects with long lead times. Again, in practice, geothermal may provide some useful power in some places, but it’s a long way from being an easy or universal solution.

Solar

And finally we come to the elephant in the room: solar energy. Its theoretical maximum is over 12,000 TW per year, the theoretically recoverable portion is on the order of 600TW, and the practically recoverable amount given current technology is around 60TW. It could meet all current and projected energy needs several times over. It is the only source of energy that can do that. In the near term, using it would require significant construction, revamping of transmission technology, and significant changes to storage technology. None of these are trivial, but neither are they overwhelming. Solar energy does have environmental consequences because of the toxic and nonrenewable compounds currently used in the manufacture of photovoltaic panels, transmission lines, and batteries. Those can be mitigated by controlling pollution at the plants, devoting research to organic-based PV (which is already showing plenty of promise), and improved battery technology and recycling.

Solar is also the only energy source (besides efficiency) which can be unobtrusive enough to live with. It can be produced right where people need it. That makes its social effects unusually benign in terms of distributing work and wealth. Logically, it seems to me, the type of price one pays should also figure into the decision of which one it’s preferable to pay. Or, to put it another way, I’d rather pay with money than by getting cancer.

One argument against rooftop solar is that there aren’t enough roofs to go around. Lewis, for instance, points out that covering all single family homes would only provide 10% of our energy. But single family homes aren’t the only flat surfaces around. There are also multifamily and apartment blocks, malls, parking lots, warehouses, factories. Also, as the capability to use thin films and light-trapping dyes improves, windows and walls can become photovoltaic (Science, 2008). We’re not limited to roofs.

Distributed solar is said to be less efficient, and it is, purely in terms of amount of sun striking a cell and wattage produced. However, add in ease of construction, maintenance, and recycling, as well as how much easier it is to distribute the effort among millions of people, and the systemwide total cost of ownership is lower. The utilities, whom regulations reward for centralizing power, are the ones who argue against distributed solutions. Regulations, however, are not laws of nature. Unlike those, regulations can be changed.

In some cases, centralized power is not just a profit center; it’s actually necessary. Ore smelting for instance, requires a large amount of concentrated energy and therefore a potentially a centralized solution. Solar thermal turbines are one way to do that. Alternatively, much better distribution and storage technology could provide large delivery of power to huge consumers, too.

I haven’t mentioned hydrogen because it’s basically a storage technology. It is, in effect, a replacement for batteries and, as such, shares the cost-benefit profile of its energy source. Hydrogen made from coal (the current dominant method) is really a fossil fuel. Hydrogen made by fuel cells using solar energy (not yet near becoming a production technology) is stored solar energy and shares that cost – benefit profile.

Summary diagram

Putting all the information together yields a range of choices that provide more or less energy per unit cost, each with their own characteristics that may make a more expensive option a good choice under specific circumstances. The per kilowatt numbers are necessarily approximate because they fluctuate based on factors other than energy source. For instance, there was an interesting article in the NYTimes, Jan. 8, 2007 discussing how price for electricity can be anywhere from one cent to fifty cents per kwH, and that’s these days, with our boring narrow choice of energy sources.

However, the modal or “overall” cost based on source is still a vitally important number. All the other fluctuations are on top of that, so a generally cheaper source will always be cheaper than an expensive source under the same conditions. That overall cost-benefit distribution of energy sources is a direct implication of the physics involved: of the theoretical maximum available energy, of its distribution, of the processes required to make it usable, and of the construction costs due to those characteristics. Since we’re talking about orders of magnitude differences in costs and energy production, exact estimates aren’t even important. An energy source could move quite a bit within its quadrant, but short of new ways around the laws of physics, it won’t move out of it. A grasp of that overall picture would faciltate making decisions.

Figure 2. Relative costs and possible total energy yields.

Solar energy and efficiency provide the most bang for the energy buck, with increasingly favorable cost-benefit into the future.  Nuclear provides a limited amount of the most expensive energy, with increasing costs for decreasing energy output into the future.  Fossil fuels don't fare much better due to environmental and health costs and global effects.

Notes. Maximum recoverable energy over time determines placement on yield scale. Any finite source has relatively low maximum energy compared to some non-finite sources. The cost-benefit of any energy source will, of course, change relative to others over time (e.g. NREL). This has been visually expressed in the case of nuclear and solar.

Nuclear: more than 30¢ / kwH. Components: mining, processing, transport, construction, operation, power distribution, liability insurance, immediate environmental costs, long term environmental costs, medical costs of carcinogens, decommissioning, waste processing, waste storage. (Severance, 2007, 2009) Costs will continue even when no power is produced, at which point each kwH is infinitely expensive. No chance of providing more than a fraction of needed energy, hence low on the energy scale.

Fossil fuels. Finite, hence can’t provide needed energy into the future, so low on the energy scale.

coal: 3¢ / kwH charged for fuel costs. With all components, more than 15¢ / kwH? More than 20¢ / kwH? And up. Components: mining, environmental damage from mining, processing, coal sludge tailings,transport, environmental costs of acid rain, mercury pollution, global warming, air pollution, medical costs of asthma, cardiovascular disease, carcinogens. Effective CO2 capture would include costs of capture, pipeline and transport, storage and sequestration, liability insurance for suffocating leaks and explosions. CO2 capture alone adds 3¢ / kwH to cost. Planet-wide damage by global warming is a potentially de facto infinite cost.

oil: 5¢ / kwH for fuel costs. See coal for hidden subsidies.

natural gas: 9¢ / kwH for fuel costs. Components: mining, pipelines, transport, global warming. CO2 capture: see coal.

Biofuels: 10¢ / kwH ±5¢ depending on source. Currently uses significant petroleum inputs to produce, although if biofuel is produced from waste that is less of an issue. Other components: transport, processing, air pollution, waste. If made from grain: massive social impact which puts biofuel in the upper left zone.

Geothermal: 5¢ – 8¢ / kwH for “low power” geothermal (i.e. not using deep drilling or exotic heat exchange fluids). (NREL)(pdf) Components: construction, if in a volcanic zone then environmental costs. Low power geothermal is limited to areas with significant near-surface heat, but there are many of them. “High power” geothermal would require breakthroughs in drilling technology to make it feasible on an industrial scale. It would also have more potential environmental effects.

Other renewables. Maximum energy recoverable in theory is a fraction of the energy needed.
Wind: 10¢ / kwH at good sites. Environmental effects for people living nearby, and potentially for birds or bats.

Hydro: 5¢ / kwH but varies depending on site. High power hydro, other components: Construction, distribution, environmental damage.

Tidal: (I haven’t seen cost estimates. My guess: around 10 – 15¢ / kwH, at least initially, falling with time as technology improves.)

Efficiency. 1 – 3¢ / kwH. Other costs: replacement of old stock that can’t be retrofitted for efficient use, therefore the expense, energy and pollution costs of the manufacturing involved. However, the need for goods and services also increases overall GDP. Well-managed efficiency in some situations has actually made rather than cost money.

Solar. 10 – 30¢ / kwH, currently commonly around 15¢ / kwH. (Includes all types: photovoltaic, thermal, concentrated.) (NREL)(pdf) Other costs: environmental if sited in pristine wilderness, pollution from rare earths in silicon-based PV technology. Energy storage is a major consideration. If widely applied, distribution can be a major consideration. Unlike any other energy source, has the capacity to provide for all current and projected energy needs.


(return to Environment chapter)


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Environment

Defining the Problem

Environmental issues are not generally considered to be at the heart of government. Government is supposed to regulate the interactions of people, and the environment is just where we live. But with technology comes increased power. People can change the environment, and suddenly the environment is one massive way people affect people. Environmental regulation has gone from being an afterthought about egregious cases of fouling to being a core function of government.

If rights are the essential limits that enable free societies, and if they apply equally to everyone, preserving the environment is the first, not the last, function of government. After all, given that people’s activities have effects on the physical world, then equality among people means that everyone has the same right to affect the environment. Imagine if every man, woman, and child on the planet polluted as much as the worst offenders. What we’ve done is give a few people the privilege to pollute and use resources out of all proportion by virtue of having been first or having more money. There is not one shred of fairness in that, and the consequences for the livability of the whole Earth are just what you would expect from gross injustice. Environmental issues are a fundamental component of social justice. One could say they are the fundamental component since without a viable physical environment none of the other rights have any meaning.

It’s intimidating, or discouraging, or both, that the very first field of activity under examination requires a realignment of everything we do if the principle of equality is actually applied. We’ve become so convinced we are equal, so convinced there’s nothing left to do on that score, that we’re as blind to the evidence of inequality as any medieval serf who couldn’t see the depravity of the aristocracy. The truth is that we have miles to go.

If everyone can pollute and use resources equally, then it follows that social justice requires completely clean, sustainable, and renewable agriculture, technology, and industry. The same holds for individual activities. There’s no question that it’s a real challenge, considering our current technologies, to move away from burning through our planet and toward living on it.

Facts (not decisions)

One problem continually crops up in this technological age: the distinction between facts and decisions is not clear enough. They are not the same thing. Treating them as interchangeable causes problems instead of solving them. A decision can’t generate a fact, or vice versa, and yet people seem to expect discussions to generate clarity and more study to indicate a course of action. Looking for things in the wrong place is a sure way not to find them.

It’s common, for instance, to hear people say they don’t “believe in” a given problem, and then to expect their belief to be accommodated, as if it really was a religion that deserved protection. In the wonderful words of Moynihan, you are entitled to your own opinions, but you’re not entitled to your own facts. The environment is not a god in whom to have faith. It just happens. It doesn’t matter what anyone believes. The way to find out what’s happening is by examining the evidence, not by subscribing to a catechism, and there’s a very good methodology for that. It’s called science. Acting as if the facts can emerge from a political discussion is a waste of time. It’s as silly as arguing about whether the planet is round. It is not a mark of balance, seriousness, or complexity to do that. It’s a way of showing one doesn’t understand the topic. A discussion of environmental issues has to encompass the complexity of competing interests, but that does not include ignoring the available evidence.

It would, of course, be a departure to require a government to pay attention to the facts, but it’s necessary for real equality. Without an explicit requirement to get and use the evidence, we are entitling some people to their own facts. Lack of access to information, whether because it’s actively hidden or poorly presented, deprives people of their single best tool to make good decisions. Then they can plausibly be told to leave them to the experts. But, worst of all, obscuring the facts is the least visible and therefore the most effective weapon of those for whom the solution is not a priority. It’s the first tool for those who want to take more than their fair share. Having the facts and giving them their proper role is not a minor issue. It’s central to a fair government.

I have to go off on a tangent here, since I’ve come down solidly on the boring side of the debate about whether facts are out there or something we shape inside our heads. In any practical sense, facts are objective . . . facts and we have to adapt to them. But there are a number of gray areas on the path toward figuring out what those facts are.

First, if we rely on science, it’s essential that scientists ask the questions that need answers. The very questions being asked can steer thought on a subject. That’s a huge, almost invisible issue precisely because it’s hard even to see the questions that aren’t being asked. (I touch upon it here.) It’s beyond the scope of a discussion on the environment to explore that particular philosophical point, but it does have to be addressed effectively in any system of government that would like to be reality-based. And that won’t be easy because, among other things, it implies changes in the reward structure of academe. (I’ll discuss that in the context of Education). Further, even though they may know which questions need asking, scientists can easily be herded into avoiding topics by depriving them of funding. Awareness of these background issues is essential in order to neutralize them, not as a reason to deny the usefulness of science. It’s a reason to make sure there are no pressures channeling the questions scientists may ask.

Once science has spoken on an issue, the only problem for non-scientists is figuring out which experts to believe. It’s not simple for non-specialists to evaluate technical evidence, nor should they have to. That’s what the specialists are for. As a scientist myself, I think there’s a rather easy answer to this dilemma. It may not be the best one, but it’s a start.

What we should do is measure the degree of agreement among the specialists, who can evaluate the evidence. And we should measure that agreement not by a poll, because scientists are notorious for waffling, but by tracking the conclusions in peer-reviewed journals. Sample size might be a problem for insufficiently studied questions, but the burning issues of the day generally receive a good bit of attention. Then all one has to do is decide which level of agreement among scientists is significant. Since we’re dealing with human beings, perhaps it would be appropriate to take the level social scientists use: 90%.

It’s not unknown for a scientific consensus to be overturned, and it’s great fun to point out the few examples (phlogiston and land bridges, for instance), but it is very uncommon. (I’m talking about flat-out wrong, not undiscovered or merely in need of refinement as any consensus always is.)

Following better-than-90% agreement among scientists is a much safer bet than most of the bets we take in life. When the vast majority of scientists agree, we can take it that the evidence is solid and the issue in question is settled, even if we don’t understand how they got there. It’s the same as accepting that the law of gravity is not in serious dispute, even though most of us don’t understand the physics involved. (Up on their own high level, that includes the physicists looking for the Higgs boson, come to think of it.) Just because, before Newton, people had a different explanation for the lack of levitation doesn’t mean that different “beliefs” about gravity must be entertained.

Presenting the right information is only half the battle. Not presenting the wrong information is perhaps a bigger and harder task. I’m not sure that it’s even theoretically possible when news is for-profit. On the one hand, sensation will always make a quicker buck than education. But on the other hand, when there’s something as sensationally dangerous as global warming, the “news” media can’t be bothered to discuss context or consequences. The structural fault may be that entertainment ceases to be entertaining when it reminds viewers of real problems, and people generally would rather be entertained than bothered. In a for-profit environment, “news” isn’t just a minor irritant obstructing knowledge. It may well inevitably become the antithesis of understanding.

That is a non-trivial problem when fairness requires accessible information. It’s another case of conflicting rights, one where it’s foolish to hope free speech can solve the problem of costly speech. Having said that, though, I can’t offer a solution. There’s a need to have standards for what constitutes actual news to make it easy for people to distinguish fantasy from reality, but I’m not sure how to implement that in ways that can’t be used to silence opposition. There’s a need for some form of instant truth squad — a split screen, perhaps, that shows how closely whatever is being presented fits the facts–, but there again, I’m not sure how it could be implemented. It’s one thing for Colbert to do it, when he controls both sides of the discussion, but effective application in a hostile situation is a different matter. Maybe the “Here Be News” logo can be limited to those who provide simultaneous fact-checking as part of their presentation? Whatever the solutions are, the point I’m trying to make is that dissemination of non-facts as facts needs conscious attention. And there also have to be rules in place that address the issue, imperfect as they’re bound to be.

So the first step in dealing with environmental issues is to get the evidence, the actual evidence, not the evidence according to anyone who stands to make money by the result. None of that can be a political process and give reality-based results. Then one tallies the weight of the evidence. It’s not hard to do and specialists in government or watchdog groups could provide that information. I’ll give a few examples from current issues.

Consider the harmfulness of genetically engineered food. The popular concern, embodied in the colorful term “frankenfoods,” is of some kind of genetic damage from these mutated organisms. The only way the weird genes in frankenfoods could infect humans is through a process called lateral gene transfer. That’s never been observed between large organisms like corn or cows and humans. Transfer of genetic material from bacteria to humans has occurred and it’s been studied (e. g. Science, 2001). It’s a rarer event than, say, a large meteor strike. A search of the literature allows one to say there is well over 99% agreement that genetic damage to humans is not the problem.

On the other hand, if you search for ecological damage from lateral gene transfer, allergic reactions to modified proteins, or nutritional damage to humans due to the poor farming practices facilitated by the genetically modified organism, then it’s a different story. (The reason for that, I suspect, is that about 75% of genetically engineered crops involve genes for RoundUp, or glyphosate, resistance. At least it did the last time I looked, around 2006. In that case, crops are engineered to resist large doses of herbicide so that very high doses can be applied. That reduces weed competition until resistance ratchets up. For a while, yields are higher. Obviously, using vast quantities of RoundUp is not conducive to either nutritional quality or ecological health.) I haven’t tallied the papers to know what the level of consensus is, but even a cursory glance shows that there’s evidence of a problem, enough to make it worth looking into.

A more difficult example is nanoparticles. There’s plenty of research showing that wonderful and amazing things are just around the corner, or even already here, because of nanotechnology. That’s great, and we’re gearing up to pursue it in the usual way. No holds barred. Meanwhile, there are disquieting rumbles in the biomedical research that the particles are the right size to interact with cells, and that some of them may even be carcinogenic in much the same way as asbestos fibers. It’s a new field, and without a review of the literature I couldn’t tell you whether there’s an emerging consensus on this. What is clear is that there is some danger here. The question is what to do about it. More study? Mandating better containment of nanoparticles preventively (and expensively)? Halting all use of nanotechnology? Decisions about future action are choices, not facts, and have to be approached differently, as I’ll discuss in a moment.

Or take yet one more topical example: global warming. Far over 90% of climatologists say the data show our activities are warming the planet far beyond the averages seen in hundreds of thousands of years (e.g. Nature). For those who want more, a couple of summaries of data here and here, and a recent article showing how feedback loops and thermal storage take the situation beyond our ability to influence. With that kind of consensus, the issue is settled (and has been for years). Likewise, so are any others with that level of agreement: the harmfulness of smog, the carrying capacity of given ecologies, and, outside of environmental issues, evolution, and reduced lifespan from smoking.

Once the fact-based step is done, the next one is deciding what to do about it. Science may be the best tool for figuring out if there’s a problem and for finding possible solutions. But it can not make the decision on which solution to use. That involves making choices, not discovering facts. It’s foolish to think a friendly discussion could find a fact, and it’s equally foolish to think science can find a decision. A decision will never emerge from more study. That will only produce more facts. (At best.) Facts inform a decision, but they can’t make it, and pretending otherwise is just a way of taking decisions out of our hands and giving them to interested parties or the inexorable march of events.

Costs and Choices

Before going into what equitable decision-making might look like, it’s vital to recognize the role of costs in making a decision.

There’s a funny assumption that runs through the thinking about environmental costs. It’s embodied, for instance, in the polls asking people what they’re willing to spend on, say, air quality. The answers are generally on the order of fifty cents a day, and this is then taken in all seriousness by economists as a starting point for discussing realistic tax costs of environmental policies. It’s as if they truly believed in a free lunch.

There is no free lunch. The choice is not between paying fifty cents or nothing. The no-cost scenario does not exist. The money will always be spent. It may be spent directly on clean air or indirectly on disease, reduced food production, or a hundred other things. In all cases, there’s a cost.

When it’s stated plainly like that, nobody denies it, and yet it’s always waved away as being irrelevant in something called the real world. That makes no sense. The real world is the one without a free lunch. Perpetual motion machines are the fantasy. It doesn’t matter how abstruse the downstream math is, the machine will not work. Everybody knows that, too. Pretending otherwise, however, lets the unspoken gamble continue, the bet that someone else will pay the price while we get the goods. That’s what it’s really all about.

Without digging very far, people will admit that’s what they’re doing. Sometimes they even put it on bumperstickers. “Nuke their ass. Steal their gas” for example. Or talk to someone about downstream costs, and the response is liable to be, “In the long run, we’re all dead.” No, actually, we aren’t, unless the whole human race goes extinct. What they’re really saying is that other people’s grandchildren don’t matter. (Their own will presumably somehow be immune.)

If there were some way to ensure that all the costs could be passed to powerless people, then at least from a biological standpoint the damage would be limited and the system wouldn’t necessarily collapse. But the most voiceless group of all is future people, and the big problem with the future is that it doesn’t stay put. It becomes now. We’re becoming the people who’ll pay the price even though we won’t get the benefits because those were already taken. At that point, it ceases to look like such a bright idea.

So, since what I’m trying to do here is delineate a fair system, the first point to make about costs is that they are never zero. We don’t get to decide whether to spend money or not. We only get to decide when to spend it and how high a price to pay. Paying early for intelligent intervention is always the cheapest solution. Letting events happen and then trying to recover from disaster is always the most expensive. In between, there’s a range of relationships between prevention and price. Somebody always pays and, in fairness, that should be the people who incur the costs.

To go back to the clean air example, the real question is not “Do you want to pay for healthy air?” It’s “Would you rather pay for healthy air or for dirty air?” Nor is it, “How much do you want to pay?” It’s “Which choice, with it’s associated price tag, do you take?” In a fair system, the costs of any choice have to be attached to that choice. If all the pluses and minuses are explicit up front, the optimum choice is often easy to see.

That obvious method of pricing isn’t already applied for the simple reason that industries are not currently regulated that way. Governments allow them to pass costs on to taxpayers and future generations. Accountants then label those costs “external” to the companies’ own balance sheets and they don’t book them. In many ways, it flabbers my gast that, when you come right down to it, an accounting rule is the proximal cause of our environmental disasters. However, for regulations, unlike the environment, it is possible to have a do-over.

I’d like to stress that it is possible to make estimates of costs, including downstream medical and ecological costs. Even if it’s nothing but a minimum or maximum boundary, it gives a pointer to the order of magnitude involved. The newer and less known the technology, the more the estimates will need refinement as data become available. But that does not affect the vast majority of estimates for the simple reason that the bulk of technology is necessarily not new. There are always data available to estimate most risks, costs, and benefits.
 
(Presenting information: an example is supposed to show how even complex data can be summarized understandably, while providing easy access to more detailed sources.)

Decisions (not facts)

Finding and presenting the facts may not be simple, but making the right decisions is even harder. The pressure from interested parties ratchets up, which makes the essential task of ignoring them that much tougher.

The general steps to a decision would be similar to the official process now. Start with gathering and providing information, follow that with a call for comments, a ruling, and possibly appeals. However, fairness requires much higher transparency and accountability. It also requires that the fair and open process results in the actual rulings instead of being a way to keep people busy while the real decisions are made elsewhere.

Environmental decisions are a special case of decision-making generally, which I’ll discuss in the chapter on governing. The main elements for the discussion here are threefold.

One is that there are different types of decisions. The most far reaching should perhaps be called unexamined assumptions rather than decisions. They’re orientations more than conscious thoughts and people can dislike examining them, but that doesn’t stop them from influencing choices and outcomes.

For instance, the issue of when to take action is probably most acute for environmental issues. There’s a big difference in costs and benefits depending on whether one chooses prevention or cure, and since it deals with the physical world, it’s not usually possible to start over after making a mistake. Absolute prevention, that is, doing nothing unless it’s first shown to be harmless, would mean real safety. It would also mean that nobody could ever make a move, because everything, including sitting in a room and growing fat, has some level of harm or risk associated with it. The opposite approach, waiting for problems to happen and then curing them, allows a great deal of room for initiative, but it also puts us in our current interesting situation where we get to find out if any of the disasters actually have a cure. The balance of risk-taking — and the associated danger of disaster and benefits of innovation — is a community decision. One could almost say a cultural decision.

On a less lofty level are broad issues of policy. For instance, whether or not to dam some rivers for extra water and power or whether to preserve natural beauty and habitat. Broad policies are more a matter of priorities than facts, except perhaps at the extremes, and are appropriately decided by consensus processes, such as voting.

The vast majority of decisions are specific, what to do in a given situation to get a given outcome. These require knowledge and constant attention detail, in other words they require professionals. Trying to get voters to decide specifics results in nothing but voter fatigue and, at best, near-random choices based on anything but the boring facts. Responsible officials with the necessary background need to be appointed to make these decisions. I mean that adjective “responsible” literally. Officials who make decisions against the evidence that lead to predictable bad outcomes should be held personally responsible for them.

The preconditions for rational and equitable decision-making are the second set of elements: transparency, explicit criteria for decisions, and the right to appeal decisions.

Transparency means more than making available details on all parts of the process: facts, deliberations, rationales, and outcomes. The experts of obfuscation have figured out how to deal with that. They drown people in data. Providing all the data is essential, but transparency also means well-summarized data, graphically presented in the clearest way possible. It means cognitively, not just physically, accessible information. It also means that every step of the process, not just the beginning, should be tallied and known.

In one respect, though, there could be less transparency than we have now without losing accountability. So far, the rules about recording every word and note don’t seem to serve much purpose. Some quite spectacular corruption has festered right next to those rules, flouting them effortlessly. When recordkeeping does prevent corruption, then it must be required. But theatre should be reserved for the arts.

Explicit criteria in a fair system would be simple. Double standards should not be in evidence at any point. Given that criterion, least total cost is the yardstick to differentiate among choices. That’s not to say that least total cost has some sort of moral superiority in itself or that it’s always the best yardstick. It applies in this case because a government is, in effect, a way of deciding how to spend other people’s money, and the only right answer after the demands of fairness are satisfied is that as little as possible should be wasted.

Total cost is only easy to discuss, not easy to determine. It’s really short for “the sum of tangible and intangible costs plus the community’s priorites.” Some of the costs and benefits will have an obvious price tag. Others, like how much the community cares about visual pollution versus product price may be very hard to pin down. Total cost is necessarily nebulous. But intangibles, such as good will, are regularly estimated in accounting. Costing such things out doesn’t require any conceptual breakthroughs. It’s only some of them, the ones which reduce profit, that are supposedly too hard to handle. And that, as I’ve said several times, is just an excuse to pass the hidden costs on to someone else with no voice in the matter.

While I’m on the subject of intangibles, I’d like to make the point again that there is no way to avoid dealing with them. Estimates are necessarily not perfect, and they always need refining as more data come in. People also disagree about the very premises of the estimates since priorities vary. However, none of that is a sufficient excuse for pretending that things like future costs or quality of life don’t exist. Ignoring them doesn’t make them go away. All it’s done is take away our control over the process.

No matter how nebulous important intangibles are, some estimate of them is better than none. The way to mitigate the associated uncertainties is not ignorance but clarity about the assumptions and data behind the estimates. The probable range of estimates, not just the best guess which is used, must be explicit. When the assumptions and their implications are clearly stated, people can make their own adjustments based on their own priorities. But once all that has been done, once we’ve given the intangibles our best guess and made clear what that guess is based on, then we have to go with it. As I said earlier, refusing to consider complicating factors because they make the question messy is a sign of avoiding real answers.

Third is the right of appeal, which provides a check on arbitrary or corrupt decisions and is important to keep feedback loops short. People who are conviced that the available evidence points to other best courses of action could sue to have the decision overturned. Since the idea is for it to be a real check, not just a means of harassment for people with vested interests, some level of general support needs to be required. Suits could go forward if, for instance, there was a petition by a tenth of one percent of the citizenry, or a few hundred thousand, whichever was lower. (This would have to be freely collected signatures. Not the paid collections that have done so much to turn California’s referendum system into a farce.)

The argument against a decision has to be based on the same goal, fairness and least total cost, and it would have to show where and why the official decision missed the optimum. The suit wouldn’t necessarily have to be heard if careful consideration indicated that the people complaining did not have a reasonable interpretation of the facts on their side. That decision could itself be appealed some limited number of times. If they did have a case, however, and if they prevailed, then the decision would be nullified and the official who made it, especially if it wasn’t the first such error, would be that much closer to losing their job.

That brings me to the officials, the actual people whose job it is to implement regulation when it will do the most good for the least cost. It takes a great deal of expertise to recognize those points. When the process is done right, it will look to the general public like nothing has happened. There won’t be any disasters that need fixing. They will have all been prevented. And yet innovation will never be hampered.

Back in the real world, there will always be officials who are less omniscient and who need to be prodded in the right direction. The ones who turn out to need so much prodding that they’re more trouble than they’re worth need to find other lines of work. The definition of that point, the number of decisions that had to be nullified for instance, might vary a bit across communities, but there needs to be an explicit point. Otherwise the tendency is always to excuse bad behavior from those in charge. Last, there needs to be recourse against those who’ve been negligent, incompetent, or criminal. Which brings me to the next section on what to do about problems.

Problems and Penalties

Human factors cause two very different obstacles to progress on environmental issues.

The first is that going after perfect environmental policies too singlemindedly would cause more hardship than it prevents. There’s a gap between what’s right and what’s attainable because we’ve let the distance grow too big. It’s one more case where rights have to be balanced to achieve fairness. With time, if we moved toward sustainability, this obstacle would evaporate.

The other one, however, would not. We’ll always have people who try to trash the environment for personal gain. Selfishness doesn’t disappear in the face of fairness. It’s merely contained.

Each of these obstacles requires it’s own approach. Going slower than one would like out of consideration for the people involved may be necessary in the first case, but is toxic in the second one. I’ll talk about mitigating some of the transition problems first, and then discuss the so far unlabelled class of crimes against the environment.

A big issue whenever there’s talk of balancing competing interests is that before you know it, all the balance winds up on the side of all the money. It’s all too easy to use the gap between what’s right and what’s possible as an excuse to slide into an ever-diminishing definition of “possible.” As in other situations when the easy way out is to avoid conflict with vested interests, it’s essential to explicitly and consciously compensate for the effect of power on decision making. The only valid reason to go slow on what’s possible is to spread the hardship of transition for the majority of people over enough time so that there’s an optimum between achieving a sustainable system and the cost and effort required. It’s about the greatest good of the greatest number, not the greatest good of the biggest pile of money.

Even when the ideal is not yet attainable, some ways of getting there may be better than others. I’ll state the obvious: for any damaging industry, the solution in a rational world is to reduce the damage to the minimum, to make sure that no people are hurt by it, and to reduce need for non-renewables by every possible recycling method. Point source pollution is easier to control than diffuse pollution (for instance, power plants vs. vehicles), so least total cost solutions would concentrate pollution to its most controllable minimum and then make sure it does not escape into the environment at large. Materials research that helps find renewable substitutes would be promoted. That research is also part of the price of using non-renewables. In a far future time, space-based industry might make finite resources functionally infinite (a boring and practical reason to continue exploring space besides the much more fun one of boldly going where no one has gone before). The cost of doing what is needed to cancel out the damage from damaging industries is simply the cost of doing business. It would mean that prices once again contained the information, said to be so desirable in markets, about what something actually costs. Fair pricing would also make it much easier to evaluate alternatives as they’re developed.

If some decreasing level of damage is allowed, it’s necessary to set a floor defining the minimum scientifically valid standard in a society based on sustainability. Communities could move toward sustainability faster, if they feel able to handle the cost, but they couldn’t move slower. It’s eminently clear by now that hyperslow motion toward a goal is just another way of avoiding it.

A minimum rate of progress toward sustainability means doing better than running in place, but determining that rate is the same type of problem as pinning down other environmental issues. The minimum rate has to be estimated because we can’t have perfect knowledge that tells us exactly what the limits are. But the one thing a minimum rate of progress does not mean is pretending there’s no answer merely because there’s no precise one.

An example of one possible way of determining limits is to commission studies, say three of them, from specialists who represent the range of ideas in that particular field. Those three studies, the “no-limits,” “strict limits,” and “middle-of-the-road” ones, could then be put out for widespread, double-blind peer review and comment. The study (or studies) judged to have the most robust methods and conclusions would then be used to set policy. If two of them are in a tie, a midpoint between them could be used. And then, since our knowledge is necessarily approximate, the decisions should be reviewed by the same process every so often, maybe every ten years, like the Census. It probably goes without saying that such a method is not perfect and would be improved over time, but I hope it also goes without saying that it would be a lot better than what we have now. Almost anything would be.

Limits mean different things in different industries because there’s varying potential to approach the ideal. There’s no reason why, eventually, agriculture couldn’t be a non-polluting, sustainable industry. There’s no reason why energy production couldn’t come very close to that ideal. At the other end of the scale, there is no way for an extractive industry to be theoretically sustainable (barring faster-than-light travel, I suppose) or completely non-polluting. And, although it’s possible that in some far future time civilization will cease to need metals, I don’t see that happening soon no matter how fair a society is.

On various levels geared to their own requirements, industries will always need practicality adjustments to the ideal of purity and sustainability. That departure from the ideal incurs costs to compensate for the damage. The important point is that the expense of those adjustments should be paid when they’re made, and not dumped on a future that has no vote in the matter. If all costs are included, the tendency to use up the planet will be de-incentivized, to use business’s own doublespeak.

In a bit of a class by itself is individual pollution, things like backyard barbecues, household chemicals, and batteries thrown into the trash. This is where people’s desire for a healthy environment meets not only the cost but also the inconvenience of having to create it. It’s not just some faceless fat cat who has to shape up. There tends to be less action on this front than one might expect from the widespread support for “green” issues.

The reason for the recalcitrance comes from the other sticking point with regard to individual pollution. It’s a similar problem to mass transit. There is no way for an individual to have mass transit, and there is no way for an individual to clean the whole environment. Only a social solution is possible to the social problem of moving large numbers of people or cleaning up after them. This makes it very discouraging when there’s no social direction behind those goals.

However, when there is, then individual action fits that paradigm. In places with excellent mass transit, such as Holland, it’s a significant way of moving people, with all the attendant social benefits. Likewise, when the whole society makes it simple to recycle, to keep houses clean without violent toxins, and so on, individual pollution might well cease to exist. People don’t contribute to pollution and resource depletion because it makes them feel good. We do it because we have no other sufficiently easy choice.

Individuals do have a massive effect on the environment in another way, one that isn’t usually classed with environmental issues. Without effective and universal policies of sustainability, the number of people on the planet is the single biggest determinant of how much damage we do. Infuencing the number of children people have cuts across so many rights, freedoms, privileges, and issues that it needs a chapter of its own. I’d just like to stress here that population is, obviously, an environmental issue, and if one admits the principle that we don’t have the right to ruin the environment for each other, then that’s equally true when it requires adjustments on the part of individuals as it is when the same is required of industry.

The second issue after problems was penalties for actual crimes. Punishments are supposed to be proportional to the crime committed, so the first question is where does environmental crime fit in the scheme of things? Is it a property crime? A crime against humanity? Something else entirely? Dumping a load of packing crates in an empty field is an environmental crime, but it’s pretty much down there with littering. It would hardly qualify as the crime of the century. Closer to the other end of the scale is something like the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident. Sickening thousands of people, killing some of them, causing birth defects, and making a whole section of our planet a no-man’s land does qualify as a new and awful kind of crime. It’s hard to even imagine what would be the appropriate penalties for something like that. There is no way to recover what was lost, and any punishment is insignificant in the face of the suffering caused.

We’re pretty clear on the minor nature of the first type of environmental crime. But the kind which causes physical harm to people doesn’t seem to be on the legal radar yet. The kind that murders a whole species doesn’t even have a name. Environmental crimes are all punished as if they’re a harmless white-collar infraction of some arcane legalism about property. Not all of them are. Some are wholesale robbery, assault, poisoning and murder. The fact that they’re bigger than ordinary crimes does not make them better. It makes them worse. They need to be punished accordingly both for the sake of justice, and to help those who are slow to understand what’s at stake.

One problem peculiar to environmental crime is figuring out who to punish. In the Chernobyl example, is it the people who decided to build a reactor? The ones who decided to build that type of reactor? The ones who decided that running without maximum safeguards was worth the risk? And who are all these people? It’s one of the hallmarks of modern industrial society. No one is responsible.

That’s the primary change needed in law and custom. The people holding the final word on decisions affecting the environment have to be held personally responsible for those decisions. Right now, there’s so little sense of the seriousness of the crime that the same people who committed it can generally retain their jobs as if it was just some accident that happened on their watch. Responsibility can’t be palmed off on some legal fiction of shareholders or committees or corporate entities without any actual corpus. Actual human beings with the actual power have to hold the actual responsibility. Those are the same rules that apply to everyone else. If people were less deafened by the call to power, it would be considered absurd to jail shoplifters while putting decision-makers in an accountability-free zone.

Environmental issues are perhaps the most important area where the feedback loop between those making the decisions and those dealing with their consequences has to be so short that there’s no difference between the two sets of people. A system that makes it simple for small voices to call big ones to account should help to reach that goal.

Restitution is always a factor in environmental cases. Recovery always costs money, and that money should come first from the pockets of those responsible for the problem. It doesn’t matter if the scale of the costs makes any indvidual fortune a drop in the proverbial bucket. No assets controlled by a responsible party should be off-limits, there can be no sheltering of funds from the consequences of environmental misdeeds. Fairness requires that.

The bottom line is that the environment is the precondition for every aspect of quality of life, and for life itself. Crimes against life have to be treated with the same seriousness whether they’re small- or large-scale.

Cost of Transition

How to get from where we are, here on the brink of ecological disaster, to the promised land of sustainability is, of course, the burning question. As a matter of method rather than principle, it belongs to the purview of economists and specialists in the relevant sciences, but it’s such a barrier to action in many people’s minds that it needs to be discussed if the principles are to have any reality.

Money is the only stumbling block, but that’s enough. Everybody would like to live in a non-polluting, sustainable society. We just don’t want it to cost anything. Since that’s what we’re afraid of, let’s face it squarely. How much would the transition cost?

There are numbers available on the cost of switching to economies less dependent on fossil fuels. For instance, the IPCC 2007 Report on climate change (p. 21) points out, “In 2050, global average macro-economic costs for mitigation towards stabilisation between 710 and 445ppm CO2-eq are between a 1% gain and 5.5% decrease of global GDP. This corresponds to slowing average annual global GDP growth by less than 0.12 percentage points.” After a thorough summary with links to dozens of original sources, another estimate is a cost of 0.11% of GDP per year to stay below 450ppm.

Higher estimates come from Stern’s landmark 2006 review of the economics of climate change. (Wikipedia has a summary.) His estimate is that 1% of global GDP is the cost of averting “the worst effects” of climate change, usually pegged at 450ppm CO2-eq, although recent data indicates a number closer to 400ppm or even lower.

Even more interesting, in some ways, is his estimate of what it will cost to do nothing. Twenty percent of GDP. That’s the kind of reduction in GDP last seen in the US in the Great Depression, when there was over 25% unemployment, tent cities, hunger, and beggared rich people committing suicide. The comfortable people became uncomfortable, and found themselves suddenly among those who don’t matter.

Before continuing, I’d like to mention briefly a couple of the criticisms from some economists leveled at any report that implies the cost of transition is feasible. One is that they review the work in question and point out that it underestimates costs. When there’s validity to the objection, it’s generally because the review takes time, and when it comes out the intervening year or more of doing nothing has already raised the price of mitigating the increasingly bad situation. It’s not so much that the estimate was wrong as that they prove how quickly inaction raises the price. The other objection tends to be that the price of doing something is totally unrealistic. The explanation for why this is so amounts to measuring what people save, taking that level as indicative of what people could spare for a transition to sustainability, and pointing out that it falls short. The economists generally dress it up by using mathematical models and their own definitions of common and uncommon words, but the whole effort fails because garbage in always means garbage out. This is the old notion that you can choose how much you want to pay. You can’t. Saying, “But I don’t want to!” makes no difference, even when you say it in mathematics. You can pay 20%, or you can pay less. Whether the less is 1%, 2%, or even 5% is not the point. The point is that is is much less. Even the critics can see that.

There are plenty of indications that feedback loops have been insufficiently included in climate change models, and that therefore the situation is much more dire even than most predictions so far. According to the grand old scientist of climate change, James Hansen, we’d have to return to a level below 350 ppm to avert unacceptable (read impoverishing and lethal) warming. (An explanation of the relationships between CO2 ppm and temperature increases is here.)

There is also some evidence that costs may actually be lower than expected. From an earlier post of mine: “The cost estimate does not include the benefits to GDP from local business opportunities, improved property values, reduced need for environmental mitigation, and so on. That’s been estimated to increase GDP by as much as several percent in developing countries, which need it the most.”

So, let’s take the 1% of GDP number as a reasonable middle-of-the-road estimate of what it would take to move to clean, sustainable energy within 40 years. Given an estimated current global budget of around $43 trillion, that’s around $500 billion per year. It’s easier to understand those numbers if they’re brought down to earth. One percent of annual income is like the total cost of an iPhone for someone who makes $120,000 per year. Or like visiting a good restaurant once every couple of months. Or like buying a thousand dollar computer. Or going on a few days vacation. The amount is nothing. [Update 2009-03-23: Well, when it's not being poured down a hole in a boat, it's nothing. When spent to bail out banks with no oversight, it doesn't feel so good.]

On the other hand, the amount is huge. A recession is any drop in GDP. ( A depression is a big drop: 10% or more.) Some people suffer during even the smallest drop, usually the most vulnerable. A family of four living on $11,000, the poverty level in the US, might become homeless in a month if their pay suddenly dropped by $110. Someone living on one dollar a day (over a billion people in 2005) could die if it turned into 90¢.

Also, it’s not only energy that needs realigning. Waste treatment, recycling, industrial practices all need huge changes that will initially cost more than current practices. My guess is that those would be less costly than the enormous, system-wide undertaking of moving to different energy sources, but let’s say it’s about the same. So, say 1% for energy transition, 1% for other industry transitions, and another percent for agriculture transition. A three percent reduction in growth of GDP happens regularly, and the world does not end. If it happens in a good year, it’s barely noticeable. If it’s an actual drop into recession, it’s a rather mild one, like the recessions in the Good Old Days of the late 20th century, not like the one that started in 2008. And that’s for transition within 40 years. One could halve the amount by spreading it over 80 years. Or ar least we could if we started now. Every year that passes with business as usual making the problem worse reduces the amount of time we have and raises the price of solving it and of doing nothing.

I can’t begin to say how much it stuns me that for fear of maybe not buying that widescreen TV, we’re gambling the fate of the only planet we have. It’s insanity.

It does not have to be that way. (I need to repeat that.) It does not have to be that way. Yes, it would take global cooperation and regulation. Yes, it would take concerted action, such as people do in time of war. As in war, our survival is at stake. Unfortunately, though, there’s nobody to fight except ourselves. Instead of satisfying enemies, the problem requires global cooperation and international institutions capable of planet-wide enforcement on the same scale as the planet-wide effects of environmental damage. It’s all very unheroic.

But it is affordable. There is no need to give up on environmental fairness any more than any other kind. On the contrary, if we don’t spend what is necessary to move to a clean, sustainable future, then we won’t have one. It’s that simple. We all won’t have one, including the people who thought they could get away with it.


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Rights

Defining Terms

Limits to power aren’t just for the powerful. They have to start with the individual, with each and every individual. Rights are supposed to provide those limits, to demarcate the borders so that everyone has the most freedom compatible with an equal level for others. However, equality is so far from realized that the word has become Orwellian: some are always being more equal than others.

Given how well-articulated and well-known the basic rights are by now, the pervasive difficulty of actually implementing them has to be due to an equally pervasive factor. External factors, such as apathy or ignorance, should vary independently of rights. They shouldn’t be able to result consistently in the same losses and the same pattern of losses that we see repeated over and over again. Rights are gained or regained in a social convulsion, and then the slow erosion repeats. The uniformity of failure suggests the fault has to be endogenous, a problem with the understanding of the rights themselves.

However, at the most fundamental level there doesn’t seem to be much to misunderstand. All rights share one quintessential feature: they apply equally to everyone. When that’s not true, they’re not rights. They become privileges. So far, so clear, but then it rapidly becomes less so.

The rights themselves are not all created equal. Some depend on others. For instance, freedom of assembly is meaningless without freedom of movement. Their relative importance can also vary. Perfect guarantees of security of life and limb become useless without any freedoms to make life worth living. On the other hand, freedom doesn’t mean much when keeping body and soul together takes all one’s time. Last, some rights are just plain missing. The right to make a living is included in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, but it’s really more of a hope everywhere in the world. And yet it’s obvious to the meanest intelligence that without a livelihood no other freedom means a thing.

None of the latter three factors — dependency, relative importance, or absence — receive the same attention as the equal application of rights. But if people are to use, in fact, the rights they have in theory then resolving those issues is necessary. Assuming equality among rights where it doesn’t exist only allows the weightier party to pull the decision its way. It is, no doubt, possible that this is why the three factors are so widely ignored. Then conflicts aren’t resolved on the merits, which leads to the usual descending spiral of encroaching power. It is not simply a philosophical exercise to figure out how to resolve the inequality of rights. It is essential.

The first step is to enumerate how the inequality among rights plays out. Which ones, exactly, take precedence? This is a ticklish issue, since nobody wants the rights dear to them declared insignificant. The usual way of handling it is to gloss over it. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights, for instance, has a couple of articles at the end pointing out that no right may be construed so as to abridge other rights. That’s a rare acknowledgment that rights can conflict, but it’s also ironic because a little higher on the same page are two rights, one of which has to abridge the other. It states that everyone has a right to education that promotes personal fulfillment, peace and tolerance, and then it says that parents have a “prior right” to determine their children’s education. But, despite the injunction against abridging, there’s no word on how to handle a parental choice of militant patriotic or religious indoctrination for their children.

Examples of direct conflicts between rights are many. Is vaccination more important than respect for the right to refuse medical treatment? Is it never, always, or sometimes more important? Does freedom of speech trump freedom from persecution? Can speech insult religious icons? Can it threaten death by mail? Or on the web? What is the difference between speech and persecution when it’s a telemarketer’s call?

Rights can also be related in other ways besides a straightforward conflict. Depending on point of view or context, the same right can be vital or irrelevant. Someone trying to pass a final exam isn’t hoping to exercise the right to free speech. A person facing a murderer’s gun may not share Patrick Henry’s feelings on the relative worth of liberty and life. The dependencies of different rights can change, too. Freedom of religion for a mystic does not require the right to assemble in the same way as it does for, say, a Catholic. A whole series of interlocking and changing issues all need to work together to resolve rights into their correct relationships, and even then they’re only valid in a given situation. The complexity is more reminiscent of biology than logic. Rights may be universal, but how people feel about them isn’t.

Given the complexity, and especially given its mutable nature, looking for static answers seems foolish. And yet the concept of adapting to reality is sometimes rejected out of hand because it would lead to a legal morass. That is a strange approach. Saying “away with complexity!” doesn’t make it so. The Dutch might as well decide that this business of having a fluid ocean makes life too difficult. They’ll pretend it’s an immobile solid and build their dikes accordingly. It’s the legal system that needs to adapt to reality, not the other way around. Expecting the latter is just magical thinking.

The complexity of the situation doesn’t make it hopeless, however. Rather simple rules can often deal with an infinitely complex reality, and the same is true here. Specific static answers may be impossible, but the rule of equality can find a way through much of the complexity even when the answers themselves depend on each given situation.

Again, the one thing that is true of all rights is that they must apply equally to everyone. That’s the whole point, and it can’t be stressed enough because it is the key to the whole problem. The same principle can be phrased in different ways, but it comes down to the greatest freedom of the greatest number. It comes down to each individual enjoying the widest possible range of rights that is compatible with the same range for others.

The principle that rights must apply equally, and that the priority of rights may change in order to preserve that equality, can provide a resolution of some conflicts on that basis alone. For instance, it’s not hard to see that allowing a religion, any religion, to dictate speech will make that freedom meaningless. If everyone is to have both freedom of speech and of religion, speech has to have priority. Giving religion priority would paradoxically end freedom of religion, since any offensive expression associated with another set of beliefs could be prohibited.

Missing Rights

So far, so good, but even that blindingly obvious example gets into trouble rather fast. Freedom of religion is meaningless without freedom from persecution, and some speech can certainly feel like harassment to the recipient. The current solution is to try to put conflicting demands on the same right: to promote free expression and to throttle it back; to promote freedom of religion and to refuse it a congenial environment. That’s doomed to failure.

However, logical absurdity is not the only choice. The irresolvable nature of the conflict is a symptom not of inevitability but of a deeper problem. The borders between the two rights aren’t good enough. They leak over onto each other’s territories. The solution is not to let one or the other leak preferentially, but to plug up the gap. The solution is to find what’s missing, and that actually doesn’t seem too difficult in this case. What’s missing is the right not to hear.

The lack of an explicit right to control our own sensory inputs is at the root of a number of modern frictions. The technology to amplify our ability to bother each other, for good or ill, simply wasn’t there before. The lack of a right not to hear is doubly odd because it would seem to be an obvious parallel to other, well-established rights. For instance, control over our own bodies doesn’t stop at freedom of movement. There’s also the right to refuse medical procedures, to be free of assault, and generally to limit other people’s ability to impinge on us. We control not only what we do, but also what other people can do to us. Yet when it comes to sensory matters, we have freedom of expression, but no equivalent right to refuse inputs from other people. That’s a recipe for disaster which is in the making all around us.

Aggressive marketing, whether commercial, charitable, or political, is not under the target’s control. It’s not up to the advertisers to stop it. It’s up to us to “tune it out.” (Interestingly, research (#refs coming#) shows that the effectiveness of advertising depends on the extent to which it is tuned out. That makes the injunction to ignore it downright sinister.) We’ve become so habituated to advertising that it takes a new angle to remind us just how intrusive it is. There is now a technique to use focused sound that reflects off the inside of the cranium (1, 2). At the focus of the speakers, you hear voices inside your head. Marketers placed these things on buildings to advertise a movie about ghosts by making passersby hear what seemed to be ghosts. It came as a surprise to them that people were outraged. (The marketers were surprised. Not the ghosts. They have more sense.) There is no real difference between reflecting sound off a wall or a skull to get to the auditory nerve. The only difference is that we’re not used to tuning out the latter. But once we’re used to it, the tendency is to accept that it’s somehow up to us to deal with it. It takes a new intrusion to remind people that, no, it shouldn’t be up to us. We have a right to silence.

Although the right has yet to be articulated, it’s already starting to be applied. It’s so obvious to so many people that even in the U. S. of A., where the dollar is king, a Do Not Call Registry limiting marketing by phone is one of the most popular laws of the last decade. However, the lack of articulation causes helplessness in the face of all kinds of violations, not all of them commercial. Cell phone conversations in confined spaces are another example. The level of discourse about that sometimes echoes the old one about smoking. The “right” to smoke was important and the right to breathe was not.

Soft porn is one area where the right not to see is explicitly discussed even if not always acknowledged. (There is general agreement that we have a right not to see the hard core stuff.) As with telemarketers, sometimes the need for a missing right is so clear, it’s demanded even if we don’t know what to call it. But because we don’t have a name for it the argument is ostensibly about whether parents should decide what’s acceptable for their children. So a parent’s right to control what a fifteen year-old sees is more important than anybody’s own right to control what they themselves see. It’s another farcical contortion symptomatic of unresolved conflicts between rights.

Now that everybody has the ability to din at everybody, 24/7, it’s going to become increasingly obvious that an explicit right not to hear, see, smell, taste, or touch is an inalienable right, and that it has to stop being alienated. As a shorthand, I’ll call it a right to silence in the same way as free speech is used to mean all forms of expresssion.

The big sticking point with any “new” right is how to implement it. It always seems laughably absurd at the time. In the high and far off times, when there was talk of broadening voting rights beyond the landed gentry, the gentry sputtered about the impossibility of determining the addresses of fly-by-night renters. We’ve managed to solve that problem. The same process is repeated with each newly recognized right. Creating a quiet environment is no different. It only seems difficult because it’s a measure of how much intrusion has become commonplace.

The basic rule is that any given expression should be sought out, and if it’s not, it shouldn’t intrude. The old clumsy brown paper covers on sex magazines were a step in this direction. Those who wanted that content could get it, but it wasn’t up to the general public to avert its eyes. Updating that attitude to the electronic age, the idea is that all content has to be opt-in rather than opt-out. If a web site wants to carry ads, a button click could lead to them, but there can be nothing “in your face.” Billboards would be banned since there is no way for them not to be in your face. Magazine articles and advertising would have to be distinguishable and separate. Television advertising would be grouped together in its own time slot, as it is in Europe. Product placement in entertainment would be a no-no.

Obviously, respecting the right to silence would affect current business models dependent on ad-supported-everything. However, simply because a whole industry has fattened on the violation of rights doesn’t mean they must continue to be violated. (For ideas on how to pay for content without ads, see an earlier piece of mine, which reflects an idea gaining currency in many places. #refs coming#) Once again, the distance between respect for the right to silence and our current world is a measure of how far technology has enabled some people to push others and how far we have to go to get back.

Not all implementations of the right to silence require readjustments to the whole social order. The issue of bellowing into cell phones could be solved rather simply, for instance. They don’t have a feedback circuit to allow the caller to hear their own voice at the ear piece. No doubt it was cheaper to make them that way. Mandating a feedback circuit, possibly an amplified one to make people talk very, very quietly, (and usable volume controls to boost the sound from muttering callers) would go a long way to returning cell phone bellowing back to normal speaking tones. Sometimes there are technological fixes.

The thorniest balancing issue raised by a right to silence is the one brought up at the beginning of this discussion: how can the greatest scope be preserved both for offensive opinions and for the right to an unintrusive environment? Bottling advertising or soft porn back up may be very difficult in practice, but there aren’t too many conceptual gray areas. How to draw the lines between conflicting opinions, however, is a much tougher question and it starts with the fundamental one of whether any lines should be drawn at all. Serrano desecrated a crucifix for the sake of art. Hoyer drew Mohammed in a cartoon for the sake of free speech. Should they have been silenced? Absolutely not.

Should the people offended by it have had to notice it? That’s a much harder question. At least in those cases, the desecration happened in venues not likely to be frequented by those faithful who would take offense. (A modern art show, and a general circulation Danish newspaper.) The issue had to be brought to their attention; a fervor had to be whipped up. In that case, if people go out of their way to notice things they don’t like, there is no issue of persecution and freedom of speech takes precedence. Persecution seeks out its victims, not vice versa.

In a different situation, where the wider culture presents a rain of unavoidable and offensive messages, such as an insistence that homosexuality is a perversion, justice seems better served by limiting that expression to venues where people would have to actively seek it out. The principle is always the same, which means the resolution may or may not be. Conflicts should be resolved to preserve the most rights for everybody, and to preserve the most equality among the conflicted parties. Precisely because equality is the goal, the resolution of any specific conflict has to be decided on its own merits.

Privacy

While I’m on the subject of missing rights, privacy is another essential one. Unlike the right to silence, at least we know it’s name and there’s growing acknowledgment that it should be on the books. However, as a recently understood right, it’s relegated to the status of the new kid on the block: tolerated if it stays on the fringes, but not welcome to interfere with the old big ones like free speech. I’m going to argue that this is backwards. Respect for privacy is fundamental to all the other freedoms and should take precedence as a rule.

To begin at the beginning, what is privacy? What is it that we have a right to? Thoughtful and thorough discussions of the definition of privacy (such as Solove’s “Understanding Privacy”) explore the concept in all its permutations. However, in one important respect there’s a missing element. Just as with all the other rights, it’s not the exact definition or its place in the hierarchy that matters because those change depending on the situation.

Trying to make a fluid issue static is part of the reason it’s generally easy to subvert the intent. It would be better to go to the shared characteristic of all the concerns about privacy. Every aspect of privacy involves the ability to control the flow of information about oneself. Exactly which bits of information need to be controlled varies according to personal feelings. It’s not the information that defines privacy. It is, once again, about control.

Control implies that the individual decides which information about her or him can be stored, where it can be stored, and for how long. It implies that the permission to store it can be revoked at any time. And it implies that potentially private information also follows that rule. It has to be “opt-in” and never “opt-out,” and the permission is revocable.

As with all rights, if they are to be meaningful, the burden of implementing respect for privacy falls on the potential violators, not the victims. A so-called right might as well not exist if it’s nothing but the suggestion that people can spend their time trying to defend against violations. The equivalent in a more familiar situation would be to make robbery illegal but to do nothing to stop it except give the victims, without any police assistance, the “right” to try to find the perps and to try to get their property back. That’s not the way rights work.

Violating a right is a crime and it’s up to the violator not to do it. That is equally true of privacy as it is of personal safety. It is not up to the individual to try to object to violations after they’ve happened. It’s up to the people who want that information to first get permission to have it. So, no, Google can’t photograph recognizable residences. Marketers can’t track your every web click. Credit reporting agencies can’t hold data against people’s wishes. Before anyone objects that then life would cease, remember that loans were made and insurance risks evaluated before the days of centralized databases. There’s nothing impossible about respecting privacy rights. It’s just expensive because a whole industry has been allowed to feed on violating them. That’s only made us used to it. It doesn’t make it good. Neither does it stop the growing resentment that always accompanies violated rights. The anger will burst out eventually, and no doubt stupidly, since we haven’t put a name on the real problem.

One curious aspect of privacy is that as a rather newly recognized right which is not well articulated, it has become an umbrella for several unarticulated rights whose lack is becoming obvious. There’s a sense that privacy is about control, so sometimes what I’ve called the right to silence is conflated with it. This is especially so when the unwanted noise involves sex. Sex is a private matter, one wants enough control not to hear about somebody else’s work on it, so it must be a privacy issue. Because the terms haven’t been correctly defined, it’s relatively simple to argue that sexual content, unless it’s about the viewer, has nothing to do with his or her privacy. The argument then spins off into being about the children. In reality, it’s about different areas of control. The right to silence is control over the extent to which one can be forced to notice the activities of others. Privacy is the right to control one’s own information.

Another issue conflated with privacy is abortion rights. The main thing the two seem to have in common is that both started to be discussed in public at about the same time. Possibly it has to do with the fact that medical procedures are normally private. However, whether or not medical procedures are performed has nothing to do with privacy. That has to do with the right to control one’s own person, one of the most fundamental rights of all. Even the right not to be murdered is secondary, since killing is allowed in self-defence. Similarly, if there was no right to control over one’s own body, patients dying of, say, kidney disease could requisition a kidney from healthy people walking around with a spare.

What muddies the argument in the case of abortion is that some people believe the fetus is a person with legal rights greater than those of its mother, since it can require her life support. There is nothing to stop them from believing this and living accordingly because there is a right to control one’s own body. However, personhood is necessarily a social or religious category, and it’s not possible for it to be a matter of objective fact. Biology can only determine who belongs in the species Homo sapiens, but there is no cellular marker that lights up when someone is due to get legal rights. It bears repeating: personhood is necessarily a matter of belief, whether that’s based on religion or social consensus. Therefore those who oppose abortion because they believe the fetus is a person with special status have to hope they are never successful in legislating how others handle their pregnancies. If they were, it would mean that exceptions could be made to the right to control one’s own person. And once that principle is admitted, then there is nothing to stop a majority with different beliefs from legislating forced abortions.

The fight over abortion is a good example of just how bad unintended consequences can be if there is enough confusion over concepts. On the other hand, if medical procedures, privacy, right to life, and personhood are kept clear, then the appropriate social policies are not hard to identify. (I am not saying that the answer is easy for the individual. Depending on beliefs, it may be a very complex. I am saying that fair social policies are obvious.)

Having discussed what privacy is, and what it’s not, let’s go on to why it is a fundamental right. That seems counterintuitive at first because privacy, in and of itself, is not very interesting. Like the right not to be murdered, it becomes critical only when it’s violated. But, like control over one’s body, control over one’s own information is necessary if other rights are to have any meaning. The only reason that hasn’t always been obvious is that we haven’t had the technical capability to spy on each other 24/7, or to retain every whisper forever. When anyone on the internet–including, for instance, your boss–can look over your shoulder and examine where you live, which plants grow in your window boxes, which gym you visit, who you have sex with, and how you looked in your baby pictures, there will effectively be no freedom left. Everything will have to be hidden if everyone can see it. What you can say will depend on what others approve of being said. Where you can go will depend on where others approve of you going. Old-fashioned police states, which depended on limited little human informants to keep people in line, will come to seem like desirable places with a few minor constraints. The logical conclusion of no privacy rights is no freedom of speech, movement, or assembly either.

A common objection to drawing logical conclusions is that the situation would never really get that bad. There’s no need to take the trouble to prevent a situation that’s not going to arise. That kind of thinking is wrong on two counts. One is that it’s symptomatic of evaluating the cost of preserving rights against losing bits of them, and of the tendency to opt for the path of least resistance. It’s too much trouble to fight so we put up with the loss. Then we get used to it. Then there’s a further loss . . . and so on. The evidence so far does not provide grounds for optimism that things will never get too bad because people won’t stand for it.

But even if there is no problem at all, even if an invasion of privacy never happens, that is not the point. The thinking is wrong on a second, and even more important, count. Rights aren’t abandoned just because nobody happens to be using them. A nation of bores with nothing to say still has to preserve the right to free speech, or stop being a free country. A nation of atheists has to preserve freedom of religion. A nation where nobody has ever been murdered still has to consider murder a crime. And a nation where nobody cares about privacy has to enforce the right to it. It’s not good enough to say that the explicit right is unnecessary because nobody needs it. Having a right to privacy is different from having some privacy because nobody has taken it away yet. We find that out every time a new invasion occurs.

Privacy is a linchpin right that needs to be explicitly included in its real place in the hierarchy.

Right to Live

There’s another vital but missing right, one that’s been identified for decades, one that was noted by statesmen like Franklin Roosevelt, and one that requires plenty of social change in some parts of the world. It’s the right to keep body and soul together under all circumstances, not only the special case of avoiding violent death. There’s a right to make a living, a right to medical care, and a right to care in old age. Obviously, the right to live has to be understood within its social context. In the Paleolithic, people didn’t have the same capacity to provide for each other that we do now. There are limits to how much we can guarantee each others’ lives, but within those limits, there is the obligation to respect everyone’s right to live. Not recognizing that right leads directly to the eventual loss of all other rights as people give them up to make a living. Just the threat of being deprived of a living leads to the loss of rights. The right to live isn’t merely a nice, pie-in-the-sky privilege for when we’re all rich enough to eat off gold spoons. It’s critical to any sustainable free society.

The right to live, perhaps more than any other, makes people fear how the inevitable conflict between rights can be resolved. A right to live costs money, and many people want to be sure it’s not their own money. However, conflict with other rights is not some special defect that makes this one uniquely impractical. All rights have conflicts and need to be balanced. The solution isn’t to rigidly prefer one. It’s to evaluate the situation on its merits and see which solution preserves the most rights for everyone.

The sticking point is how it might work in practice because the greatest good of the greatest number is not the same as a guarantee that wealthier citizens won’t lose by it. The only way to achieve no-cost economic justice is sufficient growth, equitably distributed, which brings everyone up to an adequate level. That rosy scenario is so comforting that it’s now the dominant model for how economic justice will happen. Sadly, it’s doomed. That’s not because growth could never be sufficiently vast. It could be and has been at several points in recent history when technological advances led to huge wealth creation. But spontaneous equitable distribution of that wealth has never happened. If enough people spontaneously limited themselves to ensure justice for others, there wouldn’t be a problem to begin with. There’s a problem because people do want justice, but for themselves, not as limits on their own activities for the sake of others. Economic growth doesn’t change that.

The truth of the matter is that a right to live will inevitably cost some people in the short term. Wealth is currently distributed without regard to economic justice, so the people whose money comes at the expense of the lives of others would not get that money under a just system. Again, if nobody made money unjustly, there wouldn’t be a problem to begin with. Given that there is a problem,there is no way to make it cost-free to everyone.

In some ways, it’s ironic that there should be resistance to implementing economic rights because there’s really nothing objectionable about them. Economic justice, which strives to balance all rights equally, would respect property rights and wealth accumulation that didn’t deprive others of a living. Most people, honest people, are disturbed at the mere thought of making money at the expense of others’ lives. In a just system, they could make money without that disturbance, nor would anyone fear grinding poverty. It’s a win-win situation.

And yet, the harder it is to make a living, the less anyone cares how it’s made. The less economic justice, the greater the fear of poverty and the more a right to live sounds like a right to impoverish others. It’s a downward spiral just as the previous situation is an upward one. Taking advantage of others is a very difficult pattern to stop unless there are rules in place preventing everyone equally from doing it. The truth of that is evident from the worst economic crimes, like slavery, right down to accepting minor bribes. Before the laws are in place, the haves fight them because of the spectre of poverty. After laws promoting economic justice are passed, lacking those laws becomes a mark of barbarism. For instance, turning a blind eye to slavery is now considered despicable everywhere. On the other hand, an effective social safety net is still inconceivable to many US citizens, while Europeans can’t understand how any society can be said to function without one.

The point of this digression on the costs of a right to live is that I want to be clear on the fact that there are inevitable short term costs for some people. It’s also inevitable that at the level of whole societies, judging by the weight of the evidence so far, everyone is better off in the medium term and even more so in the long term. Economic justice does not have to be the apocalyptic catastrophe that communism made of it, so long as rights are balanced rather than given rigid precedence. On the contrary, equitable economic rules lead to increased, not decreased, wealth. They’re also fundamental to a generally equitable and therefore sustainable society. In the chapter on Economy, I’ll give some examples of how a right to live might work in ways that balance available resources, property rights, employers’ rights, the right to an equitable share of created wealth, and the right not to die of poverty.

Of all the rights, the one to live suffers most from a breakdown of imagination, so I want to digress a bit on that, too. With the others, such as the right to privacy (unless you’re Google), there’s not a widespread sense that it’s silly to even try implementing them. But it’s inconceivable to many people that a universal right to live could exist outside a fairy tale. “Inconceivable” isn’t just a figure of speech in this case. It is, literally, inconceivable. For instance, no matter how many times accountants do the math and show that everyone in the US would benefit if we had universal health care, many US citizens simply cannot take on board the fact that they’re losing by not spending money on medical care for others. No doubt, if you had never seen the color red, having physicists tell you its wavelength wouldn’t help. But once you had seen it, anybody who told you it couldn’t exist would seem to lack vision.

Slavery provides one example of that change in vision. At one time, some people in the US thought slavery was essential to the economy. Now, nobody can see how anyone could have thought slavery brought any benefits. The fact that the slaveholders made some money is seen as an infinitesimally small quantity compared to the astronomical social costs. It’s become inconceivable that anyone could have missed that.

The concept that increased justice leads to increased benefits for everyone — not just nebulous moral benefits but plain old quality of day-to-day life benefits — is something that’s much easier to see when it’s been experienced. So easy, in fact, that for people in that position it must seem too obvious to need as much repetition as I’m giving it.

Although the right to live suffers the most from seeming impossible to implement, all missing rights seem fanciful. After they’ve been articulated, but before they’re applied, the usual excuse is that they’re impractical. The examples are legion. Government of the people couldn’t possibly work because the people are simpletons. Free speech will lead to a breakdown of order. Universal health care will bankrupt the country. Respect for privacy will make it impossible to do business. And so on. Yet, oddly enough, whenever the fight to gain respect for rights is successful, the opposite happens. Democracies work rather well; countries with free speech have more order, not less; and industrialized countries with universal health care have lower medical costs than the USA, which is the only one doing without. None of the missing rights would be impractical to apply. What feels impractical is that they involve limiting the power of those currently benefiting from their abuse. That’s different. It’s difficult, not impractical.

Rights in Conflict

Most of this piece on conflicting rights has been devoted to errors in the framework which cause conflicts even when none is necessary, such as missing or badly defined rights that blur the necessary boundaries among people. But even when all those errors are solved, rights can and will conflict precisely because there is no single right answer to their order of precedence.

However, although there cannot be a rigid priority among rights, there is a clear goal. The viability of all rights should be preserved. The best outcome preserves the most rights and the most freedom for the most people. In consequence, conflicts between rights need to be resolved in favor of the ones whose loss in that situation would otherwise cause the most damage.

As an example of how this might play out consider a recent conflict. Muslim workers at a slaughterhouse needed to pray five times a day. Other workers were reluctant to fill in to the extent required. Filling in is a non-trivial task in that environment. The butchering process moves at blinding speed, so workers who step away briefly create a real burden for those who have to make up the difference. The risk of serious injury is increased and, if there’s any faltering, the whole line can be halted, carcasses pile up, there’s an incredible mess, workers get in trouble, and there may be consumer health issues or financial losses if some of the product winds up being mishandled.

The conflict was between religious rights and workers’ rights. The Muslims shouldn’t have to scrimp on their beliefs just to keep their jobs. The non-Muslims shouldn’t have to work faster and increase risk of injury just so somebody else could have extra breaks. Oddly enough, a third alternative was not mentioned. The processing lines could be slowed down enough at the relevant times of day so that the missing workers didn’t cause a problem. In fact, it was a three-way conflict and the balance lies between all three factors, not just two. If the owner of the plant had been a struggling start-up operating on razor-thin margins, then any loss of profit could have meant closure of the plant. That would make both workers’ and religious rights moot and would be the wrong place to look for a solution. In this particular case, the owner was a Fortune 500 company for whom the very limited slowdown would have made some correspondingly limited impact on the bottom line. That property right needs to be balanced against equality among workers and the freedom to practice one’s religion. It’s not too hard to see which right would suffer the least damage in this case. Aiming for maximum equality among rights, the obvious alternative is to slow down the production line. It’s so obvious, that its absence from the discussion can only be one more example of the lengths to which people will go to avoid inconveniencing the powerful party.

Of course, the more evenly balanced the conflict, the harder it is to see a clear resolution. Consider, for instance, the issue of someone who objects to vaccination versus the public health need for most people to be vaccinated. On the one side is the bedrock right to control one’s own person, and on the other side is . . . the bedrock right not to be killed by a disease carrier. If an epidemic is actually in progress, the public health considerations take precedence because the threat is real and immediate. But if there is no immediate threat, and the level of vaccination in the population is sufficient that there is unlikely to be one, then the situation is different. Then the individual is being asked to give up a fundamental right without medical justification. On the other hand, if there is widespread sentiment against vaccination, consistency may be essential for the sake of fairness. (Information about the real pros and cons of vaccination would also be indicated in that case, but that’s a separate issue.) Assuming that it doesn’t start an anti-vaccination movement (which would damage public health) my preference would be to decide in favor of the less powerful party, in this case the individual rather than the public as a whole. But I could as easily see an argument in favor of maintaining consistent treatment of all citizens. The specific decision in a specific case would depend on the attitude of the community. That’s messy, but messiness is unavoidable when there is no clear path to a decision. It’s better to be clear on the real factors in a decision than to create false neatness by pretending some of them don’t exist.

Summary

What are the conclusions from this discussion of rights? One is that rights, to be rights at all and not privileges, must apply to everyone equally. Two is that the rights themselves are not equal. To preserve the maximum equality among people, it’s essential to take the inequality among rights into account when they conflict. It’s also essential to recognize that they will sometimes conflict, even in a theoretically perfect system, because their relative importance can vary in different circumstances and because people place different priorities on them.

The conflicts among rights need to be resolved in ways that are explicitly directed toward preserving the maximum equality among people. That requires two important balancing acts. One is explicit recognition of which rights depend on others. The current implicit assumption that rights are equal serves only those people who are more equal than others. If there is explicit recognition of inequality, then primary rights, such as freedom of movement or speech, can be given the necessary precedence over dependent ones, such as freedom of religion. Two is that conflicts need to be resolved in ways that do the least overall damage to any of the rights. All of them need to be viable, because they’re all essential to some degree. Allowing any right to become meaningless, which is what happens when one is automatically demoted, opens the door to the erosion of all rights.

I want to stress that when I say “necessary precedence” for some rights that does not mean exclusive or automatic precedence. It means that we have to be very careful about preserving the linchpin rights, but it does not mean that they always “win.” The essential point is the balance, and that the different kinds of balance all have to happen at the same time. It’s rather like surfing, in which balancing for forward motion and for not falling down both have to be done at once. On a different level, it’s the same problem we solve in order to walk. Both require practice, but they’re not impossible.

The point is that the balance in any given case depends on the situation so it has to be decided on its merits. The goal is the same: not to fall in the physical world, and to preserve maximum equality in the social world. The balance that achieves the goal is always different. I’m not trying to say that it would be easy, but I am saying it’s possible. It’s also necessary. Pretending that a simple, rigid system can handle the complex and fluid dilemmas of people’s rights may be decisive, but it achieves the wrong goal. The Queen in Alice Through the Looking Glass was wonderfully decisive about demanding people’s heads, but it didn’t do much for running the country. In Alice’s Wonderland that didn’t matter. In the real world, we wind up having to deal with the inevitable and nasty consequences.


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Control

Government is about control: who gets it, how much they get, and what they can do with it. The system may be called totalitarian, democratic, communist, monarchist, or anarchist, but in practice it comes down to power. The labels only tell us how to think about it.

Yet how we think about it is not necessarily insignificant. It can be, but it doesn’t have to be, for either good or ill.

Imagine it as two unrelated forces at work: thought and gravity; theories of government and the pull of power. Gravity, by itself, is boring. It’s there. It doesn’t result in anything particularly interesting and dealing with it is a lot of work. Thought, by itself, also doesn’t get anywhere. Worse, theories can be deadly. A theory about how to fly that ignores gravity would have regrettable results. Unsatisfactory governments based on untenable theories have killed millions of people. But when the two work together, when thought invents airplanes and space craft, then whole new worlds can open up and everyone can benefit.

I’d like to discuss and, if I can, contribute to two things in this work. The first is the importance of limiting the control people exercise over each other, consistent with the same desirable situation for everyone else. The second is the implementation of rights. The rights themselves are well articulated by now, but we seem to keep forgetting how to apply them every time a new situation comes up.

My focus is more or less on how to ensure sustainable equity and liberty. That implies a degree of both are there to be sustained, or at least that the evolution required doesn’t involve a change into an unrelated organism. I don’t have a new or improved way to change the world’s all-too-common dictatorships into something anyone would want to live in. I wish I did.

Placing consistent limits on people’s ability to take resources and control is much harder than logic suggests it ought to be. After all, there are always more people getting the bad end of the deal, so majority rule ought to be enough to put an end to inequity for all time. Except it doesn’t. After just a few years, one morning it turns out that the rich have gotten richer, civil liberties have been quietly legislated away, and massive global problems with obvious solutions stay unsolved no matter what the majority wants.

There are often legislative loopholes that facilitate the process, but the real problem is more basic than that. We’re fighting human nature. Until we recognize that and compensate appropriately, I don’t think we can escape the cycle of increasing inequality and subsequent nasty corrections.

Consider a basic premise of democracies. Safeguarding freedom and our rights takes vigilance. We have to inform ourselves about the issues. The system depends on an informed electorate.

That has not been working out well for us. One can point to deficiencies in education and the media, but I think even if they were perfect, we’d still have the problem. Less of it, perhaps, but always enough to lead to the inevitable consequences. The reason is that people have weddings and funerals and jobs to attend to. They have neither the time nor the interest to stay current on the minutiae of government. And it is in the minutiae that the trouble starts. How many voters will notice changes in liability law that make vaccine development too risky? When an epidemic is sweeping the land it’s too late for a do-over. How many will notice that a lethally boring redistricting law is being passed? How many will realize it disenfranchises some voters? How many will care, if it’s not their vote?

Take an easy example. In the US, five states (South Dakota, Alaska, North Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming) with just over three million people have the same Senate voting power as the five states (California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois) with 110 million. (2007 numbers) The Senate can effectively derail legislation. So a Californian has less than 3% of the political clout of a South Dakotan. Three percent.

(That disenfranchisement has been accomplished without protecting minority rights. Minority rights do need protection when the majority rules, and that was once the intent of the skewed representation of one particular group, but in our case one third of the population has lost much of its voice while minorities still have no protection.)

Giving some people three percent representation compared to others is so anti-democratic it’s not even funny, and yet nobody can find a practical solution within the current system. That’s because there is none at this point. It would involve dozens of politicians casting votes to throw themselves out of a job. The solution was to pay attention when the problem was tiny and boring, when nobody except professionals or interested parties was ever going to notice it. So we’re headed into one of those nasty corrections. Not any time soon, but the longer it waits, the bigger it’ll be. All of history shows that it’s not a question of “if,” but of “when.”

The problem is that nothing on earth is going to make people sit up and take notice of tiny boring issues. Building a system dependent on that is no smarter than building one dependent on people feeling altruistic enough to deprive themselves according to their means in order to provide for others according to their needs. It’s as doomed as an economic system that thinks it can rely on rational decision-making. It just isn’t going to happen. Instead some people will use the loopholes made by unrealistic ideas to use the system for their own ends. Communism becomes totalitarianism, and dies. Capitalism becomes a set of interlocking oligopolies that privatize profit and socialize risk. Democracies become . . . well, it varies. Some places are more successful than others at slowing the slide into media circuses funded by the usual suspects.

There’s another aspect of human nature in conflict with the way democracies are supposed to work. It’s the idea that freedom is not free, that we the people must defend it. There’s nothing wrong with the idea, all things being equal. The problem is that all things are not equal.

Abuses of power start small. They start when someone who can pushes the envelope just that one little bit. In other words, they’re started by people already some way up the social tree, which means that there’s strong resistance to stopping them. The resistance comes not only from the few who’d lose by being stopped, but also from the many who wouldn’t. That may seem counterintuitive , but remember that the situation is going to be a challenge to a social superior over something minor. That doesn’t feel like a noble defense of freedom. It feels like making a fuss over nothing. It feels like a waste of time and an embarrassment. So even at those early, small stages, there’s a cost associated with doing something. People tend to look at the cost, weigh it against the smallness of the issue, and decide it’s not worth doing anything just yet. The next time the envelope is pushed, the issue is a bit bigger, but the cost is also higher because the perpetrator now has more power. Pretty soon, there may be personal consequences, small ones at first. By the time people wake up to the fact that freedom itself is being lost, the price of resistance has grown high enough so that it’s still not worth fighting for at the time. It’s only in hindsight that the mind reels at people’s lack of action.

Another complication is that the process does not take place in the full glare of consciousness. The original issue may evade attention simply by being too small to notice. Once there’s a cost associated with noticing, the tendency is not to go there. We’d rather forget about it, and we’re very good at finding reasons why we can.

The resistance to examining disparities of power is one example. In the good old days, nothing needed to be examined because inequality was natural or ordained. Generations of goofy, inbred aristocrats made no difference to the conviction. Now nothing needs to be examined because we’re all equal. In Voltaire’s immortal words, “The law forbids rich and poor alike to sleep under bridges.” The idea that we’re all social equals is patently absurd, and yet it’s so pervasive that a President can compare the homeless to campers and it is considered evidence only of his heartlessness, not of his lack of mental capacity. We’re convinced, so the evidence makes no impression.

Not only are the issues hard to follow. We don’t want to follow them.

Does that mean it’s hopeless to aim for an equitable self-regulating system such as democracies are supposed to be? I don’t think so, or I wouldn’t be writing this tract. Exhortations to be better citizens might not work, but that’s not the only choice.

The solution is to match the ease and effectiveness of action with the level of motivation. That’s not a startling insight, but it does suggest that the wrong question is being asked in the search for a solution. The question is not why people don’t make the necessary effort. The question is what prevents people from using or defending their rights. How long does it take to find information once someone starts looking for it? How many steps are involved in acting on it? How obvious are the steps? How much time, knowhow, or money do they take? Is there any personal vulnerability at any point? You see where this is headed. The solution is to remove the obstacles.

It is not a luxury to make it easy to fight back. It is a critical, perhaps the critical lever for sustaining a free society.

Another part of the solution is to minimize the number of problems needing action to begin with. Again, that’s not a startling insight, but it does run counter to the prevailing model. Now we have laws to stop abuses. That requires the abuse to be committed before it can be dealt with. In the best case scenario that means dealing with issue after issue, as each one comes up. A better model is one of prevention. The desire to commit abuses has to be lowered, and that’s not as impossible as one might think. The trick is to shorten the feedback loop caused by abuse until it affects the person committing it.

Imagine a simple world in which a person owned a factory. Then imagine the law said they and their family had to live downwind of it. In a world without loopholes, pure air would be coming out the “smoke”stack. In a world where it was effortless to take action against evasion of the law, there’d be no loopholes. Both pollution and ownership are too complicated for obvious solutions, but that doesn’t mean there are none. A salary feedback loop, to give another easy example, would require management decisions about workers’ pay to be applied in equal proportion to management’s own net compensation. One real world example was a law requiring state legislators in Hawaii to enroll their children in public schools. It was one of the few US public school systems that was not underfunded. (I don’t know if the law still exists or if they’ve found a way to evade the intent by now.)

Effective feedback loops aren’t always simple, and finding a short term loop that accurately reflects a long term situation is much harder than rocket science. However, the point of feedback loops is the same to bring home the consequences of actions to those people who make the relevant decisions. Initial solutions that are less than perfect could evolve toward improved effectiveness if the system was set up to make the process easy. The degree to which feedback loops sound nice but impossible to implement is a measure of how far we are from actual equality.

If I’m right that people ignore the small stuff, and that what matters all starts as small stuff, why would things ever change?

First, I’d like to mention a couple of reasons why enlightened self-interest says they should change. The state of enlightenment being what it is, these factors probably won’t make much difference, but you never know, so they’re worth pointing out.

Accumulations of power actually benefit nobody, not even the supposed elite beneficiaries. The effect of power on society is like that of gravity on matter. Eventually the mass becomes so huge that movement on the surface is impossible. Economic mobility, social mobility, inventiveness, and in the end even physical mobility, all become limited. It becomes a very boring world which even the elites seek to escape. Take an archetypal concentration of power, that found in Saudi Arabia. The process has gone so far there that half the population can’t go for a walk. And yet, if being at the top of the tree is so nice, why is the proportion of wealthy Saudi men vacationing outside the country so much higher than the percentage of, say, rich European men relaxing in Saudi Arabia? Just because many people lose by the system in Saudi Arabia does not mean it’s actually doing anyone any good. For some reason, it’s counterintuitive that when everyone wins, there’s more winning to be had, but it is a matter of observable fact that life is richer and more secure for everyone in equitable societies. Logically, that would imply the elites ought to be in the forefront of limiting themselves, since it’s easy for them and they stand to gain by it in every run except the shortest one. They are, after all, supposed to be the ones who take the long view, unlike the working classes who live from day to day. Just goes to show how much of a role logic plays in this.

Accumulations of power do worse than no good. Eventually, they bring the whole society down. That, too, is a matter of observable fact. So far, no society with a significant level of technology has managed to limit power sustainably and ensure sufficient adaptability and innovation to survive. The only societies that have made it longer than a few thousand years are hunter-gatherers. Living at that technological level seems like a high price to pay for stability. We have over 1300 cc of brain. We can do better than cycling through periods of destruction in order to achieve renewal.

Although history doesn’t give much ground for hope based on enlightened self-interest, the track record for plain old self-interest is better. Not perfect, but better. When survival is at stake, people are capable of great things, even changing a few habits and working together. One historical example comes from societies that develop in flood-prone places. Anthropologists point out #(ref. coming)# that those societies, such as the Dutch and Chinese, place the highest value on social conscience. The type of danger involved: a force of nature (which doesn’t lend itself to unproductive resentment the way enemies do) where foresight and easily understood coordinated actions make a difference, can result in whole cultures with a high sense of social responsibility. The Dutch have even managed to achieve that while fostering a remarkable level of respect for individual rights.

We all live in a disaster-prone world now. For all of us the only solution is to work together and expend the resources necessary to control the situation. It’s not utopian to hope we’ll do it because people have, in fact, shown that they’re capable of it before. The truly utopian assumption is that there can be a technological solution to the problems facing us. That’s a logical impossibility not because there is no fix but because somebody has to apply it.

Technology hugely increases the available physical power in a society, and that also increases social power. Holding all that at our fingertips, as it were, means that every action is also hugely magnified. Expecting technology to fix anything is the same as expecting people to always and everywhere apply it for the greatest good of the greatest number. That’s why hoping for a technological fix is like hoping that a change in gun design will lead to the end of murder.

Amplified power has another critical consequence. Enough of it, used badly, can destroy the society that couldn’t figure out how to control the power of the people using it.

That is not hyperbole. It might seem like it because modern technological societies are only at the very earliest stages of being able to destroy the planet. At this point, we’d probably only be able to destroy it for us. The proverbial cockroaches would move in. But it’s no longer hard to imagine a scenario in which we destroy it for life. A big nuclear war could have done it. Global warming could do it. In a far future when everyone has personal spaceships, an evil mastermind could orbit a light-bending device between us and the Sun which would shade the whole Earth to death before the machine could be found and destroyed. There isn’t just one way to destroy a highly technological society, and the more advanced it is, the more ways there are. Bad governments can do it. All the people together can do it with tiny actions that add up. Mad individuals can do it with sabotage. There are so many ways that it is literally only a matter of time. The more technologically advanced the society, the more essential limits to power are for its very survival.

So, to return to wondering why things would change, it looks like that may be the wrong question again. It’s trite, but nonetheless true that things always change. The status quo can never be maintained. The only choice is to follow the path of least resistance or to expend more energy and take action. The path of least social resistance is to let the powerful do their thing. But, sooner or later, that’ll be fatal.

Planetary changes are just as threatening now as any flood, so much so that plenty of people see the need for action. However, “plenty” hasn’t become “enough” yet because of the usual impediments. Those who don’t know, don’t want to know. Many of them — those with little control over the situation — would do something about it if they could, but it’s just too difficult. The remaining few do control the situation, and there’s currently no way to bring the consequences of their actions back to them. The reason there’s no way is because they’ve made sure of it, and the reason they can make it stick is because of the power imbalance that’s been allowed to develop. It’s the same story over and over again. And the reason it persists is also the same. Too many people feel the effort of taking action costs too much for the perceived benefit.

It all comes down to limiting power. The pattern is so obvious and repeated so many times in so many different spheres that there has to be a common element preventing effective action. There’s at least one thing pervasive enough to qualify. Everybody wants to limit the ability of others to hurt them, but not as many want to limit their own ability to take advantage of others. That, by itself, may be enough to explain why we don’t get effective limits. The problem is more than global threats and too much power in too few hands. It’s also that we have to put limits on ourselves to get to the good life . . . and to avoid the opposite. That’s hard to take on board. It just feels so right that if somebody else loses, I must be winning. But no matter how self-evident it feels, that’s not actually a logical necessity. We can all lose. We’re doing it right now.


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